Research On Risk Assessment Of Quality And Safety Of Fruit Based On FCEM And HMM Model

Fruit agricultural products are indispensable sources of nutrition for people's lives.The quality and safety of Fruit agricultural products is an important issue that affects each consumer's physical and mental health,property safety,and quality of life.It is also a strategic issue related to people's harmony,social stability,and nation-building.The supply chain of Fruit is the root of the quality of Fruit.The improper control of a certain element at any link may cause problems in the quality of Fruit that flow into the market,causing huge losses.At this stage,the Fruit supply industry chain is developing rapidly,and the quality and safety of Fruit will face more opportunities and challenges.This article studies how to scientifically and effectively start with the specific key factors of the supply chain,real-time control of the quality and safety risks of Fruit agricultural products,construct a reasonable evaluation model.The main work of the dissertation is as follows:(1)The research status of the quality and safety risk of agricultural products for Fruit was summarized,and two effective models of static FCEM and dynamic HMM were selected to study the quality and safety risks of Fruit.Through the research on the quality and safety standards for Fruit and agricultural products,the assessment of risk assessment methods in multiple fields,and the related literature on multiple issues,a reasonable and clear course for thesis development was determined.(2)Established a quality and safety risk assessment system for Fruit based on the HACCP system,and calculated the weight value of each link factor through the improved IAHP.Based on the research on the realities of the links in the Fruit supply chain at the present stage,the key points that can threaten the quality and safety of Fruit agricultural products in terms of physical mechanical damage,biological bacterial infection damage,and chemical pesticide residual damage were analyzed and completed.The construction of multi-factor and multi-level risk assessment system for quality and safety of Fruit agricultural products.The interval number score is used to represent the subjective intention of the scorer to replace the specific numerical scoring method of the comparison matrix to improve the classic AHP.The process of automatically adjusting the algorithm to reach consistency greatly improves the credibility of the index weight.(3)A static fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was established on the basis of the index system,and the supply chain of the Sheshan P.A.cooperatives in Dangshan County was selected as the experimental object to obtain the evaluation raw data in the form of a table,and the static model was completed.The overall degree of membership of the objectand the calculation of the risk value,the experimental results obtained that the overall risk score of the supply chain in the 'moderate risk' level,although the method is simple and effective,but the evaluation results will be difficult to change in a longer period.(4)Introduce the time latitude and combine the density clustering algorithm DBSCAN to establish a dynamic HMM model.Taking the consumption operation link in the supply chain as an example,the real-time real-time risk status under the observation flow is obtained through model calculation,and the corresponding time is obtained through the overhead simulation.Risk value.The experimental results obtained the dynamic real risk value at each observation time,and improved the risk retention problem in the static risk assessment.