Comparative Study On Fertility Intention And The Influencing Factors Of The Childbearing-aged People Between Urban And Rural Areas

Population has always been an important issue concerning the sustainable development of society.Fertility intention,as an important index to predict fertility behavior and evaluate fertility level,is not only related to the population development in the future,but also related to the development of family structure,family conception of fertility and social structure.In recent years,the phenomenon of low fertility has been widespread all over the world.Many scholars pointed out that China has also fallen into the so-called "low fertility trap".From the selective two-child policy to the universal two-child policy,the government has been paying constant attention to the issue of fertility.To study fertility has important significance in theory and practice.Based on the logical analysis of Child's costs and effects theory,this study explores the applicability of leibenstein's theory from the realistic situation of China.From the perspective of China's reality,it has been affected by the urban-rural dual structure for a long time,and it also shows the diversity in fertility issues.So,this thesis introduces the household registration into the analysis of fertility intention,and explores the influence of economic factors on fertility intention under this conditional effect.Fertility is closely related to the family pension.Facing the background of ageing society,it is particularly important to study the relationship between fertility and take care of the elderly people,so this study introduces the responsibility of care for parents into the model for analysis.At the same time,based on the current research focus,this thesis further explores the impact of education level on fertility intention.Based on the 2015 Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS)data,using the chi-square test,independent sample T test and Logistic regression model to analyse the fertility,we can draw the following conclusions: there is a significant difference in the fertility intention between urban and rural residents,but the difference gradually decrease.From the regression results,there was a significant relationship between the accounts nature of household registration and fertility intention,marital status and fertility intention;There is a U-shaped relationship between educational level and fertility intention when the other factors remain unchanged.After controlling the other factors,there is a significant positive correlation between pension responsibility and fertility intention.From the perspective of family economic status,which is the focus of this thesis,the regression model shows that,with other factors unchanged,the relationship between family income and the willingness to have a second child is affected by the conditional effect of household registration,in the other words,with the increase of family income,the possibility of having a second or more children is low in rural areas but higher in urban areas.