The Influencing Factors Analysis Of Chinese Family Fertility Intention

Recently,as China's total fertility rate dipping to a below replacement level,the population appearing negative growth,labor population also decreasing,population aging phenomenon highlighting,"demographic dividend" disappearing,China came into the dilemma of "old before getting rich".Fertility intention will affect fertility decision which determining the birth rate,and long-term accumulation of the fertility rate will influent population size.People's fertility desire is not immutable and frozen,it will change with the progress of the society and the times vary.To understand the status and influence factors of fertility desire is significant to the balanced development of population.The purpose of this paper is to understand the characteristics of Chinese women's fertility desire,master influence factors of families that have significant effect on make reproductive decision and grasp the internal mechanism of population and development of fertility level,using the data of China Health and Nutrition Survey(CHNS).Hope that this study can benefit for individuals to do fertility decisions,and make population policy maker easier to effectively identify the adjustment point and release the potential population growth space with a final goal to achieve the desired effect and inject momentum into the economic development.Firstly,the basic situation of our population and changes in total fertility rate was described using the statistical analysis method.And then on this basis,using the China Health and Nutrition Survey(CHNS)2011 cross-sectional data,the paper analyze the factors that may have an impact on fertility willingness in the three aspects of the individual level,family level and community level,establish a generalized linear model based on Poisson regression and study empirically the factors that affect the number Chinese households will give birth to.The results show that many factors have a significant impact on fertility desires.The high age of wife restricts the fertility willingness.Husband's occupation type has a significant impact on fertility intention.Different provinces family living in resulted in different fertility willingness.Wife's family labor time(including child care time),total household net income and the community urbanization influence fertility willingness.Whether the wives had ever give a birth to any baby has also influent on the fertility intention.