| Since the 1990 s,China’s total fertility rate has been below the replacement level of population generation for a long time.The low fertility rate has resulted in the shortage of young human resources and the increasing aging of population,posing challenges to the stable economic growth.In recent years,China has timely adjusted the childbearing policy to stimulate residents’ desire to have children,but it has little effect.The decline in fertility willingness is accompanied by the rising average housing price across the country.Housing is an important part of building a family,and the geographical location of housing to some extent determines the starting line of children’s education.In this context,the relationship between housing price and residents’ willingness to bear children has attracted extensive attention.The paper systematically reviews the existing studies on the influencing factors of family fertility intention and the impact of housing price on family fertility intention,using the 2016 Chinese Labor Force Dynamics survey database provided by Sun Yatsen University to explore the causal relationship between housing price and family business intention with instrumental variable method.At the same time,from the number of children,education level,per capita family income,work unit and other aspects of the analysis of housing price on family fertility intention.It is found that the net wealth effect of housing price on family fertility intention is negative.Every 1%increase in housing price,the number of children that families intend to have will decrease by 0.111,which may be due to the inhibition effect of family property,family education expenditure,urban agglomeration and other aspects on family fertility intention;Housing price has a significant negative impact on the number of children a family intends and presents an inverted "U" trend;The influence on the family with higher education level is relatively slight,and there is a significant negative correlation for the family with less than high school education;In the classification of per capita income,housing price also shows an obvious "U" shape to family fertility intention,but the results are negative and significant;Housing price has an obvious restraining effect on the family fertility intention of private enterprises and self-employed households,but the effect on the population in the system is not obvious.Based on the research conclusion and the empirical analysis of mechanism effect,the following suggestions are put forward: First,the government should reform the way of land bidding,from the past price of the highest to comprehensive evaluation.Basing planning,design and construction standards,housing configuration and other aspects to determine a reasonable price;Secondly,attach importance to the top-level design of real estate industry,and build a three-layer policy system of real estate macro policy,real estate industrial and public policy;Thirdly,promote the "same right to rent" of houses,and write into laws and regulations that renters and homebuyers enjoy the same public services such as education and medical care,so that there are laws to abide by;Finally,the construction of birth support system should be improved to provide a solid social foundation for the transformation of the desire to give birth. |
