Study On The Influence Factors Of The Deviatior Between The Fertility Behavior And Intention

The results of the seventh population census show that the average number of children per couple in China is only 1.3,which is far below the level required for the normal replacement of the population;by observing the CGSS survey data in 2012,2015 and 2017,it can be seen that the deviation between fertility behavior and willingness of Chinese residents exists and intensifies.The low fertility will lead to the decrease of labor force and the increase of labor cost in the future,and aggravate the aging of society.Using the married samples over the age of 35 in the CGSS survey data in 2012,2015 and 2017,combined with the average housing prices of provinces in corresponding years published in China Statistical Yearbook,this paper uses the ordered logistic model to explore the influence on the difference from the number of fertility behaviors minus the number of intention by the economic residential factors and income factor,and the cultural first marriage age factor,gender preference factors and the difference of education level between husband and wife.In terms of economic factors,the increase in the area of residential houses will increase the difference from the actual number of fertility behavior minus the number of fertility intention,while the growth of house prices and per capita annual household income play the opposite role.In terms of social and cultural factors,having a preference for boys or girls and the improvement of the education level of the husband relative to the wife in the family will increase the difference from the actual number of fertility behavior minus the number of fertility intention.At the same time,the delay of the age of first marriage and the gender preference of having both children will reduce it.The mediating effect test shows that the age of first marriage plays an intermediary role in the influence of education level on the satisfaction of childbearing intention.As for different genders and different urban or rural,the difference of education level between husband and wife mainly affects male groups and urban groups.In terms of regions,all the factors studied in this paper have a significant impact on the eastern region,while the northeast region is mainly affected by the delay of the age of first marriage and the preference for both children.Finally the paper come to the conclusion that the growth of house prices,the change of fertility concept and the enhancement of gender equality awareness are undoubtedly important factors that aggravate the deviation between fertility behavior and will.