Effect Of China's Population Age Structure On Industry Structure

Human being is the combination of producers and consumers as well as the source of industrial development and the fundamental driving force.People's consumption is unconditional,and people consume during their whole lives.From the perspective of microeconomics,personal consumption behavior can be regarded as a function of age.With the change of age structure of the population,it will inevitably cause changes in social consumption.According to the theory of demand and supply equilibrium,changes in the social consumer demand made up of thousands of individuals determine the changes in the social supply structure,and thus affect the evolution of the social industrial structure.By the end of2017,the population of people aged 65 and over 65 in China reached 15.83 million,accounting for 11.4% of the total population.Comparing to the international standard of 7%,China has entered an aging society.Although China has introduced some policies such as“delayed retirement” and “two-child policy” to alleviate the disappearance of “demographic dividends,” the next large-scale and rapid aging process will be inevitable.First of all,local and international scholars believe that the influence of population age structure on industrial structure changes on the one hand is because people in different age groups have different characteristics in terms of consumption quantity and consumption structure,which leads to changes in the industrial structure of each region.On the other hand,the age structure influences the development of the industrial structure through influencing the factors of production and efficiency.This paper are mainly discuss the changes of the age structure of the population which leads to changes in consumption demand.The impact of the adjustment of the consumption structure on the industrial structure is based on market-oriented behavior.Changes in people's consumption structure will lead to changes in the market price mechanism,and the market price mechanism will lead to the redistribution of resources to meet people's consumer needs.With the increase of the number of elderly people,it will inevitably bring about changes in thescale and structure of industry demand related to the elderly.The consumption preferences,culture,and resource advantages among the regions may also cause the same age structure of the population and different consumption structures may result in different industrial structures.Using China's provincial panel data from 1990 to 2015,a fixed effect model was used to the empirically analysis:(1)From the perspective of eastern,central and western regions,the influence trend of population age structure on consumption structure on non-food expenditure in regional consumption is consistent with the that of the whole country.(2)From the empirical analysis of the influence of the age structure of the population on the structure of consumer expenditures,we find that the increase in old-age dependency ratio is conducive to the increase in living expenses and health care expenditure,and the influence on food expenditure in consumer spending is significantly negative.The increase of ratio of child dependency has the positive influence on food expenditure and living expenses,and has the significant influence on transportation,communication,culture,education and entertainment,and health care spending.(3)The cross-terms of the ratio of non-food expenditures to old-age dependency ratios in consumer spending have a significant positive effect on the advanced industrial structure.Because of the “ leakage effect ” of infrastructure and technology development in the eastern and central regions faster than in the western region and changes in the industrial structure,changes in the age structure of the population have not played a significant role in promoting the advanced industrial structure in the western region.The central region has played a significant role in promoting the advanced industrial structure.(4)The cross item of the ratio of non-food expenditure of the consumer expenditure and child dependency ratio has a significant negative effect on the advanced industrial structure.The increase in the child dependency ratio in the sub-region is related to the net birth rate.As“demographic dividend” gradually disappears in China,the ratio of child care is related to the supply of labor in the future and the consumption capacity of these laborers.Finally,the paper gives political proposal for specific purposes: each region establishes and improves a perfect social pension security system based on the actual age structure characteristics,and improves the active labor market policy in various regions to increase national income and promote the development of consumer-oriented economic society.