| The first time the 65 years old in the proportion of the total population of elderly people reached 7% in China since 2001.Our country has entered the stage of an aging population society.Industry's development cannot leave the population resources support.Human are both consumers and producers,who are affecting the whole society in the demand and supply.In terms of demand side,the aging population will affect the consumption structure,which will affect the structure of the product.Then,industries and the producers will according to the product demand changes adjusted the industrial structure.Finally,this changing the industrial structure;While,On the supply side,the aging population will through labor supply quantity,quality and savings affect the social capital affects the number of labor supply,labor productivity level,money supply,finally influence the change of industrial structure.The aging population has closed relation with the change of industrial structure.Under the background of the aging of the population,how to realize the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is our country facing one of the neediest to problems to solve.Therefore,further research the aging population impact on the changing of industrial structure both necessary and valuable.In this paper,through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis with the combination of research methods,defined the connotation of the aging population and the judgment,also the related concept of the industrial structure.It's summarized scholars' researches the influencing factors of industrial structure.On the based analysis of the influence,researched the mechanism of action,which is the aging of population on the industry structure changed.Then,we used the empirical analysis the relation.This article selected 31 provinces which are the city area of the relevant data in the2001-2015,and established many dynamic panel data models,using SYS-GMM estimation analysis aging population impact on optimization of industrial structure and rationalization of industrial structure also regional differences.From the results,we can found that on the impact of an aging population,aging population and rationalization of industrial structure have a negative effect,and a significant effect.In other words,the result showed that an aging population promoted industrial structure changing in the direction of rationalization;Underling the impact of an aging population,an aging population and optimization of industrial structure have a positive effect,and effect the results significantly.In other words,the result revealed that the aging of population played a role on optimization of industrial structure,the industrial structure change in the direction of optimization;From the relational differentiation study,we found that in the eastern and central parts,the aging population and the rationalization of industrial structure index have a negative effect,while in the western region,the aging population and the rationalization of industrial structure the index have a positive effect,Which also means that,in the eastern and western region,the aging population promoted industrial structure changing in the direction of rationalization;and in the west,the aging population hindered industrial structure changing in the direction of rationalization,the reason maybe that the aging population time is shorter,and cannot give full play role in propelling in the western region;In the east,central and west,the aging population and optimization of industrial structure index have a response affect,just not all significantly effect.According to the above results and the problems found in the analysis of current situation,and considering the aging population in China,how to adjust the industrial structure rationally is one of the most important issues in the development of our national economy.In this paper,we put forward the following suggestions:(1)the top-level design,scientific planning of industrial development;(2)develop the aging industry,to promote the development of modern service industry;(3)to increase investment in education,improve the human capital;(4)promoting the mobility of labor market,and promote regional integration of urban and rural employment;(5)promoting scientific and technological innovation,promote industrial restructuring and upgrading. |
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