Research On The Influence Of Population Structure Change On The Upgrading Of Industrial Structure In China

In the 21st century,great changes have taken place in China’s population age structure,population urban-rural structure,population education structure and population industrial structure.The changes of population structure affect the upgrading of industrial structure in the East,middle and west of China in different degrees by means of population age structure,population urban and rural structure,population education structure and population industrial structure.Firstly,this paper combs the literature about population structure upgrading to industrial structure at home and abroad in detail;secondly,it clarifies the concept of population structure and industrial structure upgrading and the relevant theories of population structure and industrial structure;secondly,it analyzes the trend and existing problems of population structure change and industrial structure change in 1978-2018 in China;finally,it empirically analyzes the national and East Central China in 2000-2017 The influence of the change of population structure on the upgrading of industrial structure in the western region,and the countermeasures and suggestions of improving the population structure to promote the upgrading of industrial structure are put forward.Based on the theory of industrial population,the theory of structural evolution and the theory of industrial structure optimization,this paper conducts panel regression analysis on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2017,and selects the corresponding fixed effect model or random effect model through the f-value test and Hausmann test to analyze the impact of population structure change on the upgrading of industrial structure in the whole country and the East,central and western regions.The results show that:(1)the improvement of the total dependency ratio has a significant inhibitory effect on the rationalization of the industrial structure in the western region,but has no significant effect on the rationalization of the industrial structure in the whole country and the eastern and central regions.The increase of the total dependency ratio has a significant role in promoting the industrial structure of the whole country and the central and western regions,but has no significant effect on the industrial structure of the eastern region.(2)The rise of population urbanization rate has a significant inhibitory effect on the rationalization of industrial structure of the whole country and the eastern and western regions,but has no significant effect on the rationalization of industrial structure of the central region.The rise of population urbanization rate has a significant role in promoting the industrial structure of the western region.It has a significant inhibitory effect on the industrial structure of the central region.(3)The increase of the population proportion of higher education has a significant role in promoting the rationalization of the industrial structure of the whole country and the eastern and central regions,but has no significant effect on the rationalization of the industrial structure of the western regions.The increase of the population proportion of higher education in the eastern and western regions has a significant inhibitory effect on the industrial structure of the whole country and the central region.(4)The increase of the proportion of the population in the tertiary industry has a significant inhibitory effect on the rationalization of the industrial structure of the whole country and the central and western regions,but has no significant effect on the rationalization of the industrial structure of the eastern region.The increase of the population proportion of the tertiary industry has a significant role in promoting the industrial structure of the whole country and the eastern and central regions,but has no significant effect on the industrial structure of the western regions.