Study On The Impact Of Population Aging On Industrial Structure Upgrading In The Twin-city Economic Circle Of Chengyu Region

The report of the 20th Party Congress points out that the implementation of the strategy of actively coping with the aging of the population.According to the National Bureau of Statistics,by the end of 2021,China’s elderly population aged 60 and above will reach 267 million,accounting for 18.9%of the total population,while by around 2035,the elderly population aged 60 and above will exceed 400 million,accounting for more than 30%of the total population and entering a stage of heavy aging.The demographic transformation will act on the economy and society,so the study of this issue can help China better achieve high-quality development.This paper takes the national urban cluster of Chengdu-Chongqing twin-city economic circle as the research scope,and takes the influence of population aging on industrial structure upgrading as the research object,The current situation of population aging and industrial structure upgrading in the twin-city economic circle of Chengdu-Chongqing region is introduced and analyzed from the perspective of development trend,and empirical tests are conducted based on least squares method.The main findings of this paper are as follows:First,the population aging in the twin-city economic circle of Chengdu-Chongqing region is deep and higher than the national average,but the intra-regional differences are obvious,and there is a trend of gradual expansion in recent years;the industrial structure upgrading in the twin-city economic circle of Chengdu-Chongqing region is steadily advancing,and the labor productivity is continuously improving,but the intra-regional differences are obvious,and there is a trend of gradual expansion in recent years.Second,overall,population aging improves the industrial structure upgrading in the two cities economic circle of Chengdu-Chongqing region,with each 1%increase in population aging rate accelerating the industrial structure upgrading process by 0.12%,and this result remains robust after adding each control variable;third,the effect of population aging on industrial structure upgrading in the two cities economic circle of Chengdu-Chongqing region has heterogeneous characteristics,for the years after the financial crisis,for The effect is stronger for regions with high level of economic development and population inflow.Fourth,the level of science and technology,consumption upgrading,and human capital level are important mechanisms of action between population aging and industrial structure upgrading in the twin-city economic circle of Chengdu-Chongqing region.The higher the level of science and technology,the stronger the effect of population aging on industrial structure upgrading,and population aging can influence industrial structure upgrading by promoting two mediating variables of consumption structure upgrading and human capital accumulation.Accordingly,this paper proposes the implementation of regional coordinated development strategy,talent strengthening strategy,expanding domestic demand strategy and innovation-driven development strategy to cope with population aging and promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure in the twin-city economic circle of Chengdu-Chongqing region to achieve high-quality development.