Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On The Upgrading Of China’s Industrial Structure

Since China’s reform and opening up for forty-three years,our country has successfully achieved many economic achievements that have attracted worldwide attention.However,in the past two decades,our country has begun to enter the age of population aging,and the problem of population aging has gradually highlighted the negative impact on the transformation of economic development mode.Under the dual pressure of the current prominent problem of population aging in our country and the high-quality and sustainable development of the economic structure,in-depth discussions on how to prevent population aging and promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure will not only helps to fully verify the interrelationship between the prevention of population aging in our country and the promotion of industrial structure transformation and upgrading,but also provides a theoretical basis for government departments to research and issue relevant policies to support the development of industrial structure,which has important theoretical significance and practical value.The impact of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure is extremely complex.Population aging has an indirect impact on the upgrading of industrial structure through demand-side and supply-side factors.On the basis of combing the theory of industrial structure change,this paper first theoretically assumes the relationship between population aging and industrial structure transformation and upgrading;then based on economic meaning,rationally defines population aging and industrial structure upgrading,and raises them with the elderly population.Recently,to measure the current degree of population aging in our country,it describes the upgrading of the industrial structure from two aspects: how to promote the advancement of the industrial structure and the rationalization of the upgrading.Select the macro-level inter-provincial panel data to empirically analyze the impact of our country’s population aging on the advancement and rationalization of its industrial structure;at the same time,the four channels of labor supply,labor productivity,human capital accumulation,and consumption expenditures are used to test the impact of population aging on industries.There are two main research conclusions on the mediation effect of structural upgrading.(1)Generally speaking,the aging of the population has a positive effect on the advancement of our country’s economic and industrial structure,while it has a negative effect on the rationalization of our country’s economic and industrial structure.The aging of the population in the current stage of our country has an increasing role in promoting the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure in the eastern,central and western regions,which means that the changes in the industrial structure in the western region are affected by the aging population structure and are sensitive to other regions.The continued deepening of the population aging process will play a vital role in promoting the development of tertiary industries such as medical care and elderly care in the western region.However,the aging population has hindered the rational adjustment of the industrial structure in various regions of our country,and its negative effect on the western region is stronger than that in the central and eastern regions.Talents who have received higher education in the western region of our country actively flow to the eastern region,which is not conducive to the adequate and reasonable allocation of production factors in the western region.(2)From the perspective of the research and analysis of the impact mechanism,the aging of the population mainly promotes the upgrading of China’s industrial structure by improving the labor productivity of enterprises and accelerating the accumulation of human capital in enterprises.It is only the current increase in labor costs caused by the aging of the population.Obviously,companies are forced to use technological means to make up for the lack of labor,so these effects have not a strong positive effect on the upgrading of industrial structure;at the same time,the aging of the population has a negative impact on labor supply,which will have a greater negative effect on the upgrading of industrial structure;however,the intermediary effect of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure in the consumption expenditure approach has not been fully demonstrated,which means that the current increase in the degree of population aging in China cannot promote the overall improvement of consumption levels.With the further improvement of the social old-age security system,the aging consumer industry has broad development prospects in the Chinese market.At the same time,there are also great differences in the mechanism of the aging of the population on the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure in the eastern,central,and western regions.This article believes that our country should not only make full use of the inducing effect of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure,but also avoid the negative impact of population aging on the rationalization of industrial structure.By accelerating the accumulation of human capital,improving labor productivity,increasing investment in aging services and other fields,tapping the consumption potential of the elderly,implementing regionally differentiated industrial policies,realize the gradual optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure under the background of our country’s population aging.