| Population is an important factor in economic growth,the size,quality and age structure of the population will affect the direction of regional industrial restructuring.Anhui Province has been an aging society since 1998,which is one of the earliest one in China.By the end of 2017,the population of Anhui province aged 65 and above accounted for 12.38 percent of the total population,and the aging degree is relatively serious.The industrial structure of anhui province presents the “two-three-one” mode supported by industry,and the industrial structure needs to be optimized and upgraded.In the context of population aging,the proportion of working-age population in anhui province is on the decline,while the proportion of the elderly population is on the rise.The "demographic dividend" is gradually disappearing,and the change of population structure will have an impact on the industrial structure.On the one hand,the increase of the elderly population and the decrease of the working-age labor force lead to the shortage of labor supply,which indirectly affects labor productivity and brings adverse effects to the upgrading of industrial structure.On the other hand,the aging population will bring new economic growth points.The elderly have a greater demand for financial services products in the field of medical care and old-age care,which will inject new vitality into the development of the tertiary industry.Therefore,it is of practical significance to analyze the impact of aging on industrial structure,which can optimize the industrial structure and build a new economic system.This study takes the inter-provincial data of Anhui Province as the research sample,and takes the population aging and industrial structure of Anhui Province as the research object.This paper mainly includes the following five parts.Firstly,we research literature,collect data,and comb the theoretical knowledge framework based on the research purposes and content,which lay the foundation for research the impact of population aging on the industrial structure.The second part is guided by the theory of population transformation and the theory of industrial structure evolution.This part defines the two themes of population aging and industrial structure,and explains the impact mechanism of population aging on industrial structure from the perspective of demand and supply.Thirdly,we analyze the development status of population aging and industrial structure in Anhui Province,and use gray correlation analysis to measure the degree of association between population aging and three industries.Fourthly,this paper establishes a vector autoregressive model to analyze the impact of population aging on the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure.Fifthly,we summarize the results of the previous study and put forward corresponding suggestions.The results are as follows: The aging of Anhui Province has obstruction to the rationalization of industrial structure.However,after the indicator of high-level industrial structure is affected by the population aging,which produces a significant and lasting trend of change in the same direction,that is the impact of aging will promote the evolution of the industrial structure toward higher levels.According to the results of the study,we put forward the following recommendations: Increase the propaganda of "two-child policy" and optimize the population structure.The flexible retirement system should be implemented to and make full use of the elderly population resources.Change the industrial development mode and optimize the industrial structure.Promote the development of the tertiary industry and develop “Seniors market”. |
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