The Effect Of Temperature On The Death Of The Circulatory System Diseases Of Residents In A Rural Area

Objective:The purpose of this study was to analyze the death status and temperature status,to evaluate the effects of daily mean temperature on the death of local residents,and to provide a basis for the rational allocation of health resources in response to climate changes.Methods:In this study,we collected and described the death rate,the sequence of death cause,the life expectancy and the expectancy of death cause;we collected and described the meteorological factors and air pollutant;we collected daily mortality data in 2014-2017,and analyzed the effects of temperature(high and low temperature)on all death,cardiac death and cerebrovascular disease death by using distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM)and generalized linear model(GLM).Results:1.In 2016,the leading causes of death were heart disease,cerebrovascular disease,tumor,respiratory disease,injury and poisoning.The death cause sequence of men and women was in line with the entire population.The crude death rate of all cause death,cardiac death,and cerebrovascular death was 602.70/105,261.70/105 and 121.02/105.Life expectancy was 80.62 years,78.53 years for male and 82.78 years for female.The loss of life expectancy in the top 2 were heart disease and cerebrovascular disease.When get rid of the causes,life expectancy of entire population could increase 9.58 years,2.46 years,men 8.33 years,2.52 years,women 10.57 years,2.33 years,respectively.2.Mean temperature of four years was 14.8℃ in 2014-2017,the maximum value 33.1℃,the minimum value 10.9℃,the median15.9℃.The average daily temperature varied with the seasons,with the highest temperature in July and the lowest temperature in December and January.The daily mean temperature was positively correlated with daily relative humidity and daily average wind speed,which was negatively correlated with PM10,PM2.5,N02 and S02 concentration.3.The number of deaths,cardiac death,and cerebrovascular disease death per day varied with the seasons,with the highest death toll in November and December.A "U" shaped relationship was found between mean temperature and mortality,and the optimal temperature referred to19-21℃.4.When the temperature drops every 1℃ in 20℃,cooling effect caused excess mortality risks of all cause death,cardiac death,and cerebrovascular disease death were about 3.61%,2.56%,and 3.90%.When the temperature rose every 1℃ in 20℃,heat effect caused excess mortality risks of all cause death,cardiac death,and cerebrovascular disease death were about 4.27%,5.71%,and 10.53%.When compared excess mortality risk caused by same temperature risen with excess mortality risk caused by same temperature declined,the heat effect is greater than the cold effect.The excess mortality risks of all cause death,cardiac death,and cerebrovascular disease death caused by high temperature(30℃)were43.61%,58.36% and 108.86%.The excess mortality risks of all cause death,cardiac death,and cerebrovascular disease death caused by low temperature(-2℃)were 67.60%,39.95% and 106.15%.The effect of cardiac death caused by high temperature is greater than that of low temperature.5.The effects of hypothermia(-2℃)on all cause death,cardiac death,and cerebrovascular disease death were 7-10 days,8-10 days,and 6-10days;The strongest relative risks were 1.081(1.026,1.139),1.082(1.003,1.168),and 1.115(1.034,1.203).The cumulative effect of hypothermia on total death,cardiac death,cerebrovascular disease death was likely to last1-15 days,0-14 days and 10-15 days,whose overall risks were1.68(1.12,2.52),1.40(0.83,2.36),2.07(1.05,4.09).The effect of high temperature(30℃)on all cause death,death of heart diseases,and death of cerebrovascular disease was delayed 0-3 days,0-3days,and 2-6 days;The strongest effect relative risks were 1.088(1.001,1.182),1.158(1.031,1.300),and 1.090(1.020,1.165).The cumulative effect of high temperature on all cause death,cardiac death,cerebrovascular death was likely to last 0-15 days,0-15 days and 3-15 days,whose overall risks were 1.44(1.07,1.94),1.58(1.05,2.40),2.09(1.15,3.81).Conclusion:1.In 2016,the life expectancy was 80.62 years,78.53 years for males and 82.78 years for females.The top death cause was heart disease,and cerebrovascular disease was second death cause.2.The drop and the rise in temperature could increase excess mortality risk of all cause death,cardiac death and cerebrovascular disease death.The excess mortality risk caused by rising temperature is greater than that caused by temperature drop.The effect of temperature on cerebrovascular disease death is greater than that of cardiac death.The effect of cardiac death from high temperature is greater than that from low temperature.3.It was rapid that high temperature influenced on all cause death,cardiac death and cerebrovascular disease death,while it was slow that low temperature influenced on all cause death,cardiac death and cerebrovascular disease death.The cumulative effect of high temperature and low temperature lasted longer.