Risk Assessment Of Prefabricated Building Projects Based On PPP Mode

At present,Chinese government is promoting prefabrication with full effort.However,due to the large investment in the early stage,high incremental cost and uncertain market prospects,Many enterprises lost the enthusiasm to invest in the prefabricated construction projects,as a result,the promotion of prefabrication is facing adverse conditions.Since 2015,the State Council,the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have issued plans and guidelines for corresponding prefabricated construction projects,demanded that "The proportion of prefabricated buildings in new building area reaches 30%within 10 years".However,the proportion of prefabricated construction projects in new building area is still less than 5%.To this end,prefabricated construction projects are built as a demonstration of promotion by the government,but it brings financial pressure to the government as well.The paper applies public-private-partnership(PPP)to the prefabricated construction of public building projects.After explaining the applicability of PPP model applied to prefabricated building projects,the framework of adopting PPP to prefabricated public building projects is constructed and the relationship between risk factors and stakeholders at various stages was analyzed.After analyzing the interaction relationship among the identified risk factors,the System Dynamics(SD)method was used to construct a risk dynamic impact model of the prefabricated building project based on PPP model.Finally,a sensitive analysis is carried out on the basis of the result of the previous questionnaire survey and the SD model.Sensitivity analysis is performed from the dimension of different project stages and the target dimension,namely quality,cost,and schedule,to identify key influencing factors.The purpose of this paper is to identify and analyze the risks and impacts of the prefabricated public building projects based on PPP mode,and to assess the impact of various risk factors on investment risks from the perspective of the private party,and to form a methodological proposal for sharing and responding to investment risks.In the end,alternative ideas and risk management methods are provided for solving the problem in the development of prefabricated building based on PPP mode,thus solving the problem of low investment enthusiasm for prefabricated buildings and difficulties in the promotion of prefabricated construction projects.