Research On Risk Propagation And Control Of Automobile Manufacturing Supply Chain Based On SIR Model

With the improvement of living standards and the increase of automobile sales,China’s automobile production and sales have been in the forefront of the world.The automobile industry can not only effectively absorb the achievements of scientific and technological innovation,but also provide many jobs,which plays an important role in the development of science and technology and economy.There are many industries involved in the automobile manufacturing industry.No automobile manufacturing enterprise can independently complete the production of automobile products.It is necessary to combine upstream and downstream enterprises to build a supply chain and participate in production activities together.In addition,in the context of economic globalization and parts generalization,most enterprises have adopted a global procurement strategy.As a result,the supply chain risk of automobile manufacturing industry is diversified,and its complexity is becoming more and more stronger.Enterprises are very vulnerable to the impact of sudden risks and have strong vulnerability.In the competition among modern enterprises,the competition between supply chains plays a leading role.Supply chain management has become an important technical measure in enterprise management,which can not only improve the competitiveness of enterprises,but also avoid certain risks for enterprises.Firstly,this paper introduced the related theories of supply chain risk,supply chain risk propagation and control in automobile manufacturing industry,and the related theories and research results.On this basis,combined with the characteristics of automobile manufacturing industry,the main risk factors existing in the supply chain of automobile manufacturing industry is proposed,the spread characteristics of risk in the supply chain of automobile manufacturing industry is analyzed,and the relevant risk control theory is researched.Then,the weighted network of supply chain in automobile manufacturing industry is constructed by using the theory of complex network.Combined with the characteristics of risk propagation in automobile manufacturing industry supply chain.Based on SIR model,the specific quantitative formulas of infection rate and recovery rate are given,and the two factors influencing risk propagation are studied in depth,the results show that improving the ability of enterprises to resist risks can weaken the impact of risks on the enterprises,ensure the orderly operation of the enterprises,and improve the overall stability of the supply chain system.In the aspect of risk control,the immune effect of different immune strategies is compared and analyzed,and the immune effect of target immune is the best.Secondly,according to the principle of combining theory with practical research spirit,the practical cases are applied to test the constructed model.The feasibility of the model has been effectively verified in this enterprise.In the end,the summary and prospect of the research are given.