Research On Risk Propagation Of Automobile Supply Chain Based On Complex Network

Automobile supply chain is one of the most complex types of supply chain,which concerns many companies.With the development of globalization,the business relationship between automobile enterprises is getting closer,but at the same time,the risk factors of automobile supply chain are also increasing,which makes the automobile supply chain more vulnerable.The COVID-19 in early 2020 has had a great impact on China’s automobile supply chain.Exterior enterprise have suffered serious losses,and some of them have even been eliminated by the market.Based on the theory of Complex Networks and the perspective of supply chain network,this paper studies the propagation mechanism of risks in the automobile supply chain and proposes corresponding risks management,which has important practical significance to improve the risk resistance and stability of China’s automobile supply chain.In terms of network construction,this paper establishes an automobile supply chain network composed of the main automobile enterprises in China,and analyzes the main statistical indicators of the network.With BA scale-free network model as a tool,the evolution rules and main parameters of automobile supply chain network model are determined by sorting out relevant research and reports of automobile supply chain network.By using MATLAB to simulate,this paper verifies that the automobile supply chain network constructed in this paper conforms to the small world and scale-free characteristics of the real network.In terms of risk spreading,the risk propagation model of the automobile supply chain has been established to study the mechanism of risk propagation on the automobile supply chain network.By summarizing the risk factors confronted by automobile enterprises,the risk index system is constructed.On the basis of SIR epidemic model,elimination rate and The Effective contact rate are introduced to improve the risk propagation model.Meanwhile,MATLAB is used to simulate the change rule of each state node during risk propagation.The simulation found that whether the risk impact expands depends on the initial network risk threshold and the proportion of susceptible nodes.That means the more the initial risk source number,the wider the risk spread speed and infection range.The speed of risk propagation and the scale of infection are directly proportional to the infection rate,and inversely proportional to the recovery rate and elimination rate.In terms of risk management,this paper puts forward a number of risk management measures from the perspective of theory and reality.At the theoretical level,it compared the changes in the scale of network infection before and after the risk warning,and found that the resistance of network nodes after the implementation of the warning has been improved,which can The Effectively reduce the scale of risk infection.Then,by comparing the three risk control strategies of random immunization,target immunization and acquaintance immunization,it is found that target immunization is significantly better than the other two strategies,and the earlier is it applied the better is the The Effect.At the practical level,it puts forward some risk management measures,such as strengthening the enterprise’s own management,realizing information sharing,optimizing the cooperation relationship,so as to improve the recovery ability of automobile enterprises and the elimination efficiency of supply chain network.