Research On The Stability Of The "Belt And Road" Energy Trade Cooperation Network

In 2013,President Xi Jinping proposed the "Belt and Road Initiative".After that,the Chinese government successively released the "Vision and Action of Promoting the Construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road","Promoting the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21 st Century Maritime Silk".The Road to Energy Cooperation Vision and Action and the "One Belt,One Road" Construction Maritime Cooperation Vision Three Major Documents.It is conducive to promoting economic prosperity and regional economic cooperation among countries along the line,and jointly creating an open,inclusive and inclusive shared energy interest community,responsible community and community of destiny to jointly build a safe and efficient maritime channel and maritime cooperation platform.However,uncertainties such as international disputes,wars and terrorism still exist,threatening the stability of the energy cooperation relationship in the "Belt and Road" region.To assess the stability of the current energy cooperation relationship along the "Belt and Road" countries,and discover the hidden dangers and problems of threat stability in energy cooperation is an important issue that can not be ignored in the study of "One Belt,One Road" energy cooperation.This paper first reviews the complex network theory and stability theory,and proposes a method to build a complex network of energy cooperation.It evaluates the stability of the "One Belt,One Road" energy cooperation from both static and dynamic levels,and the assumptions and scenarios for the assessment.The settings were made and the indicators were explained and explained.Secondly,under the premise of theoretical assumptions,the first part of the empirical analysis sorts out and discusses the current status of energy cooperation in the "Belt and Road",constructs the complex network topology of oil and natural gas trade in each year,and analyzes the network density,average distance,etc.Static indicator of stability.The second part performs a dynamic invulnerability assessment of the network structure in the set context.The third part identifies important energy cooperation countries from the perspective of "three chains" and constructs an independent network structure to analyze its stability in the same way.Finally,based on the results of the assessment,the conclusions and countermeasures are proposed.The static analysis results show that the current oil and gas trading network has the characteristics of high density,low distance,high concentration and strong heterogeneity,and the indicators of the natural gas trading network are inferior to the oil trading network.The dynamic simulation evaluation has the following conclusions: First,with the passage of time,the fluctuation amplitude of each network structure under different risk scenarios has decreased,indicating that the stability has been enhanced,and the evolution results of static features are mutually confirmed,and oil trade The stability of the network is better than that of the natural gas network,and it has higher stability.Second,the subjective risk factors are more destructive to the stability of the network.Third,some small and medium-sized countries with nodes in the upper middle position are connected to the network.The stability impact is huge and needs to be taken seriously.The empirical analysis between the key energy cooperation countries shows that the oil and gas trading network has shown good stability,but the agglomeration is still poor.To this end,it is necessary to comprehensively prevent random risks,focus on preventing subjective risks,consolidate the status of small and medium-sized non-traditional energy countries,and establish a new mechanism for "One Belt,One Road" energy cooperation.