Traffic Prediction And Technical And Economic Analysis Of GL Expressway Project

Feasibility study is to demonstrate the rationality of construction project before investment decision-making,comparing alternatives comprehensively by multidiscipline approaches on the basis of investigating and analyzing various data related to the project.Feasibility research is the foundation of investment decision,preliminary design and financing.Highway is an important transportation infrastructure and feasibility research is not only the core part of its preliminary work but also plays a vital role in its construction process.Based on the theory and procedures of feasibility study,and combined with the characteristics of expressway construction project,this paper takes GL Expressway Project as its research object,carry out the feasibility analysis on the project from traffic volume forecast,technology & socio-economic evaluation and other aspects,so as to provide both reference and basis for the project investment decision.Firstly,Beginning with systematic studies into expressway traffic predication methods,introductions were made to basic ideas for traffic predication,relevant theories and methods.Based on the “four-stage method” for traffic predication,traffic predication model was established.It will lay the foundation for economic and technologic assessment.Secondly,determine the affected areas of the project,and analyze the interaction between the socio-economic environment and the project,so as to preliminarily demonstrate its macrorole.Then,through the analysis of traffic status and development planning of the project affected areas,further determine the necessity of project implementation.i.e.,through the investigation on highway traffic,comprehensively understand the current situation of traffic volume composition,traffic flow direction and traffic flow rate in the project affected areas,and forecast the traffic volume in the project's future characteristic year by using a "four-stage method",thus further demonstrate the necessity of project construction.Thirdly,analyze the natural conditions,construction materials and transport conditions of the project to demonstrate and determine its main technical standards.Meanwhile,comprehensively considering the route's general trend,topography and geology,urban planning and other factors,compare the project's start/end point,route trend scheme,and select the optimal engineering scheme of project implementation,thus determine the technical feasibility of project construction.Finally,carry out socio-economic evaluation on the project at six levels of investment estimation,national economy,land use,energy-saving and emission-reduction and social impact,and weigh the pros and cons to demonstrate the positive role and feasibility of project construction.The feasibility study of this project not only has a certain significance for guiding the construction of GL Expressway Project,but also has some reference values for other highway project construction feasibility study.