Study On Traffic Volume Forecast Method Based On Traffic-Economy-Urbanization Model

Engineering feasibility study is mainly on the necessity of highway construction projects,technical frasibility,economic rationality and implementation frasibility.It’s an important step in early work,and the main basisfor determining whether the project is invested.Engineering feasibility study provides the most basic project structure,project process and project scale for project management.These are important components of the project management knowledge system.Among them,traffic volume prediction is an important part of engineering feasibility study.It is the basis of determining the technical level of project,the scale of the project and the economic evaluation of the project.It is also the basis of decision-making for the project construction.Now,four stages forecast method is the main forecast method in China.As the reference value in the "traffic-economy" model is relatively simple,only GDP is used as a reference indicator.And future changes such as regional development policy,local high grade highway construction and residents’ travel tendency are not fully considered.Then,the error between the predicted traffic volume and the actual traffic volume will become larger and larger.And also,we can find that the forecast value is higher in the near future,the middle is more reasonable,and the forward is more general.Therefore,this paper proposes to optimize the forecast model from the aspects of traffic volume forecast,and it is expected to improve the prediction accuracy.The essence of urbanization is the change of economic structure,social structure and spatial structure.Transportation plays an important role in the process of urbanization.It is also an important carrier of economic development,an important channel and support for the formation of social space.Therefore,considering the relationship between urbanization and traffic,it is proposed to add the urbanization index to the "Traffic-Economy" model of the forecast of the original traffic volume,and to construct the "Traffic-Economy-Urbanization" model based on Newton’s second law.And then,take provincial highway 456 as an example,use the newly constructed four-stage forecast method to forecast the traffic volume.The forecast data is in line with the project area traffic development,and it is also in harmony with the local urban development and economic development.The forecast results can be adopted,can be used as a reference for the construction of the relevant road.We compare the predicted values with the traditional four stages forecast method.The accuracy is higher than the traditional predictive value.