Evaluation Of Resource Environmental Carrying Capacity In Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone

The resource environmental carrying capacity is a regional and global problem and an important factor to measure regional sustainable development.With the development of economy and society,the ecological environment of Dongting Lake ecological economic zone has been destroyed,and the contradiction between man and land is prominent.This paper constructs the evaluation index system of the carrying capacity of resources and environment from the four levels of resources,environment,economy and society,and analyzes the spatiotemporal variation in the carrying capacity of synthetic and four subsystems in the Hunan Dongting Lake ecological economic zone from 2000 to 2018 by using the entropy weight TOPSIS model,and on this basis,through GM(1.1)gray prediction model to predict the carrying capacity of synthetic and four subsystems in 2020,2025 and 2030,and finally to explore the path of carrying capacity enhancement,in order to clearly show the characteristics of spatial and temporal evolution of the resource environmental carrying capacity in Dongting Lake ecological economic zone,and to provide a reference for regional sustainable development.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The spatiotemporal variation in comprehensive resource environmental carrying capacity in Dongting Lake ecological economiczone are significant.(1)From 2000 to 2018,the overall comprehensive resource environmental carrying capacity in the whole area of Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone was on the low side,showing a fluctuating upward trend,rising from a lower level to a medium level.Among them,the carrying capacity from 2000 to 2005 was in the rising stage,with a small decrease from 2005 to 2010 and a rising stage from2010 to 2018.(2)The spatial pattern of the comprehensive resource environmental carrying capacity has always been disproportionate to the level of economic development,The areas with higher carrying capacity are in the west and southeast of Dongting Lake,while the low-value areas are located in the urban areas of Yueyang City,Yiyang City,and Changde City and its surrounding cities.in the spatiotemporal evolution,the east-west transition from "U" type to inverted" U" type,the south-north transition is also "U" type to inverted" type,and the south is obviously higher than the north.(2)There are also some spatiotemporal variation in the carrying capacity of each cities subsystem in the study area.(1)from 2000 to 2018,the carrying capacity of each sub-system of each cities showed a fluctuating upward trend,and the carrying index was basically at the middle low level;the carrying capacity of the resource subsystem increased by only 0.011,with the smallest change,the environmental subsystem fluctuated frequently,the fluctuation degree was large,and theeconomic and social subsystem changed more smoothly.(2)The resource carrying capacity is relatively high in the west and east,and the central part is relatively low;the environmental carrying capacity is high in the west and southeast,and the rest of the space is low;the regional differences of economic carrying capacity are roughly consistent with the spatial distribution of the level of economic development;The spatial differentiation of social carrying capacity is roughly consistent with the spatial distribution of urbanization level.(3)From 2019 to 2030,the comprehensive resource environmental carrying capacity and the carrying capacity of the four subsystems in Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone continued the trend of2000-2018,showing an overall upward trend.By 2030,the comprehensive carrying capacity and the environmental carrying capacity index of all cities in the whole region will rise to the middle level and above,Resource carrying capacity increased slightly,economic carrying capacity and social carrying capacity increased steadily at a low level,and most cities rose to a moderate level.The spatiotemporal variation in comprehensive carrying capacity and the carrying capacity of each subsystem is still consistent,and the internal differences have narrowed slightly.