Research On Carbon Emission Prediction In Hebei Province Based On System Dynamics Model

Global warming caused by excessive carbon dioxide emissions has threatened the sustainable development of human society,and carbon emission reduction has become a common problem faced by the international community.As the country with the most carbon emissions in the world,China is suffering from increasing carbon emissions reduction pressure.As one of China’s major economic provinces,Hebei’s economic structure is dominated by the secondary industry,with large consumption of energy resources and high energy consumption characteristics,therefore,Hebei’s carbon emissions account for a relatively high share in china’s total carbon emissions.At present,the economy of Hebei Province maintains a high development speed,and the rapid economic growth often leads to strong demand for energy consumption.It can be expected that the pressure of carbon emissions reduction for Hebei Province will remain large in the future.The Chinese government announced that carbon emissions will reach the peak in around 2030.As a major carbon emissions province in China,carbon emissions development trajectory of Hebei will largely determine China’s carbon emissions reduction results.Therefore,this paper explores the development path of carbon emission reduction in Hebei Province.Therefore,this is significative to explores the development path of carbon emission reduction in Hebei Province.From the development status of carbon emissions,the decomposition of carbon emissions influencing factors,the construction of carbon emissions system dynamics model and the carbon emissions scenario prediction and analysis,this paper studied the carbon emissions system in Hebei.First of all,based on the energy data of the Hebei Provincial Energy Statistics Bureau and the National Statistical Yearbook,this article calculates the carbon dioxide emissions of Hebei Province from 2000 to 2016,to get on the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the status quo of carbon emissions in Hebei Province mainly from the current situation of population in Hebei Province,the status quo of economic development,the status quo of energy consumption and the status of carbon emissions.Secondly,this paper systematically analyzes the factors affecting carbon emissions in Hebei Province,and measures the contribution of various influencing factors to carbon emissions in Hebei Province by the extended LMDI model.The study found that the increase in economic scale,urbanization level,industrial structure and population promotes the increase of carbon emissions in Hebei Province,while the increase in the proportion of rural population and the optimal adjustment of energy intensity and energy consumption structure of various industries will inhibit the increase of carbon emissions.Furthermore,based on the analysis results of carbon emission influencing factors in Hebei Province and the related theory of system dynamics,the paper constructs the causal relationship diagrams of the four subsystems of population subsystem,economic subsystem,energy subsystem and environmental subsystem,and establishes the carbon emission system dynamics model of Hebei Province,and tests it to guarantee verify the validity of the model.Finally,the article uses the model to predict and analyze the carbon emission system of Hebei Province and predicts the carbon dioxide emissions in Hebei Province during2017-2030.By promoting or inhibiting carbon emissions in Hebei Province,this paper sets different development scenarios for the carbon emission system in Hebei Province.The study finds that while the economic development,population and urbanization are at a higher growth rate,the industrial structure of Hebei Province and the energy intensity of various industries are at a moderate rate of decline,which is conducive to the low carbon development of Hebei Province.According to the comparative analysis of different scenarios on the future carbon emissions of Hebei Province,this paper combines the development status of Hebei Province to provide three policy recommendations which is low carbonization of energy structure,low carbonization of energy structure and low carbonization of technology for low carbon development in Hebei Province.