Research On Influencing Factors And Predictions Of Carbon Emissions In Transportation Industry In Hebei Province

In recent years,global environmental problems are becoming more and more prominent,and the problem of climate warming is becoming more and more serious.The continuous growth of greenhouse gas emissions is one of the main factors leading to climate warming.Transportation industry is the basic industry of national economic development,but also the industry with high energy consumption and carbon emissions.Therefore,it is extremely urgent to study the carbon emissions of transportation industry.The rapid economic development of Hebei Province has brought great pressure on environmental protection.The development of low-carbon transportation and the promotion of energy conservation and emission reduction can promote the realization of the goal of building Hebei into a major province of ecological civilization.This thesis aims to promote the low-carbon development of the transport industry in Hebei Province,takes the carbon emission of the transport industry in Hebei Province as the research object,and analyzes the development status,carbon emission status,carbon emission influencing factors and carbon emission prediction of the transport industry in Hebei Province on the basis of summarizing the research status and relevant theories at home and abroad.Finally,according to the research results,suggestions on energy-saving and emission reduction measures for Hebei transportation industry are put forward.The main research contents of this thesis are as follows:(1)This thesis analyzes the development status and energy consumption status of the transport industry in Hebei Province.Guided by the relevant theories and model methods of carbon emission measurement,this thesis calculates the carbon emissions of the transport industry in Hebei Province from 2010 to 2020 by using the "top-down" method,and makes a comparative analysis of the calculation results.(2)In this thesis,six influencing factors including carbon emission coefficient,energy structure,energy intensity,industrial structure,economic output and population size are selected to study the influencing factors of carbon emissions from transportation industry in Hebei Province by using LMDI method.The results show that: Energy structure,energy intensity and industrial structure all inhibit the growth of carbon emissions from transport industry in Hebei Province,but the degree of inhibition is different.The factors of economic development and population size promote the growth of carbon emissions of transport industry in Hebei Province,and the economic development factor has a significant promoting effect.(3)In this thesis,the scenario analysis method is combined with the extended STIRPAT model,and three scenarios of high carbon,baseline and low carbon are set up by using the scenario analysis method.Based on the extended STIRPAT model,carbon emissions of transport industry in Hebei Province during 2021-2035 are predicted.On the basis of the above research,the thesis puts forward the suggestions of energy conservation and emission reduction measures for the transport industry in Hebei Province: optimizing the transport mode,promoting the upgrading of the transport structure;Increase the proportion of clean energy and optimize the energy mix;Actively promote technological progress,regulate energy intensity;advocate the concept of low-carbon transportation and develop low-carbon economy.