Research On Energy Demand And Carbon Emissions Prediction Of The Civil Building In Hubei Province

Climate change,as the most important environmental issue nowadays,has been widely concerned by the international community.The continuous growth of greenhouse gas emissions from human activities is the main cause of global warming.Since civil buildings are an essential field of energy consumption and carbon emission,the total amount control of their energy consumption and carbon emission has become the focus of China’s efforts to address climate change.As an vital province to implement and promote the national strategy,Hubei province should execute the work of energy conservation and emission reduction in the field of civil buildings.Because it is not only helpful to relieve the pressure on resources and environments and to promote social and economic development within the province,but also a significant boost to the overall energy strategic deployment in China.Therefore,the research object of this thesis is civil buildings in Hubei province and the purpose of it is to systematically study and scientifically predict the energy consumption and carbon emission of civil buildings by the adoption of factor decomposition analysis and scenario analysis.Firstly,this thesis analyzed and defined the energy consumption and carbon emission of civil buildings,and then reviewed the two methods of factor decomposition analysis and scenario analysis used in the research.Secondly,different types of Statistical Yearbooks and Energy Balance Sheets were used as the raw data sources to calculate the area of civil buildings,energy consumption and carbon emissions in Hubei province from 2001 to 2017.Then the LMDI-I was used to decompose and analyze the changes of energy consumption and carbon emissions,so as to determine the key factors that result in the change of energy consumption and carbon emissions.Thirdly,according to the decomposition results and the needs of LEAP model parameters,the key factors were scientifically set.Finally,the scenario analysis method was used to set three scenarios in terms of weak,medium and strong constraints,so as to predict the energy demand and carbon emissions of civil buildings in Hubei province from 2018 to 2050.By comparing various constraint scenarios,the energy saving and emission reduction potentials of civil buildings in Hubei province were evaluated,and then targeted policy suggestions were proposed.The results show that the total energy consumption and carbon emission of civil buildings in Hubei province has increased.The effect factors that contribute to the rise in energy consumption and carbon emissions include: per capita building area,urban and rural population structure,and population scale.However,it is the energy intensity of building area and comprehensive carbon emission factors that limit the growth of energy consumption and carbon emissions.By 2050,the energy saving potential of civil buildings in Hubei province will reach 3.427 million tons of standard coal.Moreover,the emission reduction potential of that will be 10.3434 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.Based on the above analysis,this thesis finally put forward some policy recommendations.Research results of this thesis will promote and improve the theoretical framework of study and prediction on energy consumption and carbon emission of civil buildings and give future reference on energy conservation and emission reduction for buildings with a regional climate of hot summer and cold winter.Meanwhile,sound scientific evidence is also provided for Hubei province to formulate a reasonable development strategy and planning regarding civil buildings and to consequently achieve the energysaving and low-carbon development in the field of civil buildings.