Characteristics,Influence Factors And Prediction Of Agricultural Carbon Emissions In Shanxi Province

In order to explore the agricultural carbon emission in Shanxi Province,this paper taked 11 prefecture-level cities in Shanxi Province as the research object.According to the statistical data of agricultural production in Shanxi Province and other cities over the years,emission factor method was used to calculate the agricultural carbon emissions generated in the process of using chemical fertilizers,pesticides,agricultural film,agricultural diesel,agricultural irrigation and farmland ploughing.From the perspective of total carbon emission,carbon emission intensity,carbon emission density and carbon emission structure,this paper analyzed the temporal variation characteristics of agricultural carbon emission in Shanxi Province,and explored the spatial characteristics by using the visualization spatial analysis method.The LMDI model was used to calculate the contribution values of six factors,namely agricultural production efficiency,agricultural industrial structure,regional industrial structure,economic development level,urbanization level and rural population,to the carbon emissions of Shanxi Province and 11 prefecture-level cities,and to determine the impact degree of each factor.Combined with the STIRPAT model and scenario analysis method,the agricultural carbon emission trend of Shanxi Province from 2021 to 2030 was predicted by different scenarios,in order to provide theoretical basis for the development path and emission reduction countermeasures of low carbon agriculture in Shanxi Province.(1)From 2000 to 2020,agricultural carbon emissions in Shanxi Province showed a trend of steady rise and then gradual decline,and reached a peak in 2013,which was169.76×10~4 t.Agricultural carbon emission intensity showed a fluctuating downward trend,from 0.54 t/10,000 yuan in 2000 to 0.35 t/10,000 yuan in 2020,with an average annual decline of 2%.Agricultural carbon emission density showed a trend of fluctuating rise and then slow decline,and it was 4.77t/hm~2 by 2020.The application of chemical fertilizer was the most important source of agricultural carbon emissions in Shanxi Province,accounting for 63.86%of annual carbon emissions,followed by the annual contribution rates of agricultural film,diesel oil and pesticide of 14.14%,11.12%and 8.37%,respectively.Agricultural irrigation and farmland ploughing produce relatively little carbon emissions.(2)Yuncheng(33.46×10~4 t)was the region with the largest and fastest growing average carbon emission in Shanxi Province.The average carbon emission intensity of different cities ranged from 014 t/10,000 yuan to 0.46 t/10,000 yuan,among which Xinzhou was the largest and Taiyuan was the smallest.The average carbon emission density ranged from 0.28 t/hm~2 to 0.59 t/hm~2,among which Changzhi was the largest.Luliang was the smallest.From 2000 to 2020,the annual variation coefficients of agricultural carbon emission,carbon emission intensity and carbon emission density in Shanxi Province were62.0%～74.0%,20.0%～32.0%and 21.0%～33.0%,respectively,showed spatial non-equilibrium.The evolution trend of regional differences of agricultural carbon emission and carbon emission intensity was stable,while regional differences of agricultural carbon emission intensity showed an expanding trend.According to the spatial visualization analysis,the high agricultural carbon emission values of Shanxi Province were divided into central and southern Shanxi Province and Xinzhou region with large seeding area.The high-value areas of carbon emission intensity were concentrated in northern Shanxi.High density carbon emission areas are mainly located in the central and southern part of Shanxi Province with better natural conditions.(3)Agricultural carbon emission inhibition factors include agricultural production efficiency,agricultural industrial structure,regional industrial structure and rural population.The cumulative carbon emission reduction from 2000 to 2020 was 4052.63×10~4 t,and the order was agricultural production efficiency(-295.33%)>Regional industrial structure(-203.67%)>Rural population(-104.97%)>Agricultural industrial structure(-41.20%).Economic development level and urbanization level were the promoting factors,and the increment of carbon emission was 4680.78×104 t,and the order was the regional economic development level(621.70%)>Urbanization level(123.46%).According to the decomposition results of carbon emission influencing factors in 11 prefecture-level cities in the past 20 years,the results showed that the influencing factors have the same effect as the whole province,but the regional differences were obvious.(4)According to the predicted trend results of agricultural carbon emissions in Shanxi Province under five scenarios from 2021 to 2030,it can be concluded that agricultural carbon emissions in Shanxi Province show a slightly rising trend in the baseline scenario,and by 2030 agricultural carbon emissions will reach 157.06×10~4 t.In the baseline scenario of weak low-carbon development,agricultural carbon emissions in Shanxi Province show an ascending and descending trend.Agricultural carbon emissions start to decline from 2026to 142.31×10~4 t in 2030.In the baseline scenario of strong and low carbon development,low and weak low carbon development,and low and strong low carbon development,agricultural carbon emissions in Shanxi Province show a gradual decreasing trend.By 2030,agricultural carbon emissions will be 131.06×10~4 t,124.54×10~4 t and 110.11×10~4 t,respectively.Under the scenario of low and strong carbon development,Agriculture has seen the biggest drop in carbon emissions.