Research On Industrial Carbon Emission Prediction And Emission Reduction Countermeasures In Hebei Province

In today’s world,economic globalization has developed rapidly,which has led to more and more energy consumption in various countries,leading to increasingly serious carbon emissions.China is the second largest energy consumer in the world,and the demand for energy is even greater.As a major industrial province and a strong economic province in China,Hebei Province has maintained rapid development in industrial production in recent years.However,an indisputable fact is that as the regional economic aggregate continues to expand and the population continues to expand,the contradiction between industrial economic development and resources and environment in Hebei Province is becoming more and more serious.The consumption of industrial energy is increasing rapidly,and carbon emissions are becoming more and more serious,which will bring huge losses to the whole society and people’s lives,and also affect the quality of the ecological environment.The rapid development of the industrial economy poses severe challenges to the province’s resources and environment.Taking t he low-carbon industry as the leading factor,reducing energy consumption and promoting the upgrading of industrial structure are of great significance.This paper first introduces the status of social development,energy consumption and industrial carbon emissions in Hebei Province,then introduces the theory and model methods of carbon emissions,and systematically discusses the development of industrial economy and energy consumption in Hebei Province on the basis of relevant theoretical introductions,and then through STIRPAT.The model finds the main influencing factors of industrial carbon emissions in Hebei Province,including population,industrial production value,energy intensity energy structure and urbanization rate,and comprehensively and systematically analyzes the above-mentioned influencing factors.The impact of the above factors on industrial carbon emissions from large to small is: industrial output value,urbanization rate,energy structure,energy intensity,population.Subsequently,the scenario analysis method was used to scientifically predict the industrial carbon emissions of Hebei Province from 2017 to 2035.This paper selects three scenarios: baseline scenario,energy-saving scenario and strong energy-saving scenario for scenario setting,according to population,industrial production value,energy intensity.The changes in energy structure and urbanization rate are used to analyz e the changes of future industrial carbon emissions.It is concluded that the annual industrial carbon emissions are different under the three modes and the peak time and magnitude are different,but the overall trends are presented.The trend of rising fi rst and then falling.Finally,based on the analysis of the prediction results of the three scenarios,the countermeasures and suggestions for industrial low-carbon development in Hebei Province are reasonably proposed: adjusting the industrial energy cons umption structure,taking the energy diversification road,optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure,and developing low-energy-consuming industries;Industrial energy utilization efficiency,reduce energy consumption;strengthen government functions,strengthen industrial energy management;build industrial ecological parks,and attach importance to ecological environmental protection.