Analysis Of The Potential Of Industrial Carbon Emission Prediction And Emission Reduction In Henan Province

Since the industrial revolution,the speed of greenhouse gas emissions has accelerated,Henan Province as a new industrial province,the industrial field is in a stage of rapid development,the future carbon emission development and emission reduction potential is directly related to the smooth progress of the national carbon emission reduction work,reducing industrial carbon emissions,is an important part of Henan Province’s practice of green development concept,promote the construction of ecological civilization.This paper selects the overall industry and eight sub-sectors of Henan Province as the research object,and calculates the carbon emission status of various industries according to the carbon emission calculation coefficient given by IPCC.Through the expandable STIRPAT model theory,combined with the ridge regression method,the industrial carbon in Henan Province is analyzed.The main impact indicators of emissions,using the scenario analysis method to set the baseline scenario,low-carbon scenario and high energy consumption scenario to predict the industrial carbon emissions of various industries from 2021 to 2030,and measure the emission reduction potential of each industry from the perspective of fairness and efficiency It is helpful to understand the current situation and future trend of carbon emissions of the overall industry and sub-sectors in Henan Province.It can adjust the emission reduction targets according to the situation of each industry and adopt different emission reduction measures to provide scientific and reasonable information for relevant departments to carry out relevant planning.support.The results show that industrial carbon emissions in Henan Province have gradually declined since 2013,and the increase in energy and raw coal consumption will lead to an increase in carbon emissions in all industries;from the carbon emission prediction results,it can be seen that the overall industrial carbon emissions will continue to decline under all scenarios,And the rate of decline is the fastest under the low-carbon scenario;from the calculation results of emission reduction potential,it can be seen that from the perspective of fairness and efficiency,Henan’s industry as a whole has a certain emission reduction potential.Put it on the "efficient and fair" oil industry,electric power industry,and mining industry.According to the above conclusions,Henan Province should formulate corresponding carbon emission reduction strategies according to the specific conditions of different industries.