Research On Total Energy Consumption And CO₂ Emission Control Models And Countermeasures In Shandong Province

Since the reform and opening up,China’s economy has achieved unprecedented development and its economic level has leapt to the top of the world.With the growth of the social econo my and the increase in people’s production and living consumption,the total energy consumption and CO₂ emissions have increased dramatically.In the short term,the rapid growth of energy consumption has supported rapid economic development,continuous advancement in science and technology,and further improvement in people’s living standards.However,in the long term,excessive energy consumption leads to energy shortages and over-discharge of CO₂,which brings severe resource and environmental challenges.The increase in global average temperature brought about by the rapid increase in greenhouse gas emissions seriously threatens human survival and sustainable development.It is an inevitable trend to control energy consumption and CO₂emissions,cope with the climate change and take the path of a low-carbon economy.In this context,on the one hand,the relevant theories of energy consumption and CO₂emissions at home and abroad were studied,including the theory of Sustainable Development Theory,Environmental Kuznets Theory and Decoupling Theory;on the other hand,relevant energy nvironment models were learned--LEAP model.Through the study in this field,we have mastered the current situation of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions at home and abroad,and learned about the country’s future plans for energy consumption and CO₂ emissions and its control objectives,laying the foundation for a better study of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in Shandong Province.This article will take Shandong Province as a research object,demonstrate and analyze the long-term energy consumption and total CO₂ emissions in Shandong Province.Combining the populat ion,economy,energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of Shandong Province from 2005 to2016 to study the total energy consumption and CO₂ emissions and the time when the CO₂emission peaked in Shandong during the period of 2017 to 2035 in the baseline scenario,low-carbon scenario,and enhanced low-carbon scenario with the LEAP Model.The results of the study show that:Under the baseline scenario,Shandong Province will continue to follow the current policies and measures to maintain its inertial development,and its energy consumption and CO₂ emissions will continue to increase.In 2035,CO₂ emissions will reach a peak level,which will have a serious impact on the environment.Under the low-carbon scenario,in order to achieve energy-saving and emission reduction targets,Shandong Province will take measures in accordance with energy planning and relat ed documents,and it will make Shandong Province achieve CO₂ emission peak from 2027 to 2029 and energy consumption peak by 2032.Under these circumstances,Shandong Province can reach the goal of China’s CO₂ emission peak in 2030proposed at the Paris Climate Conference.Under the enhanced low-carbon scenario,Shandong Province will implement a strong policy,comprehensive consideration of GDP grow th rate,energy intensity,etc,take measures such as increasing environmental input,improving technology levels and optimizing energy structure,etc.In order to reach the peak in advance,if necessary,coercive measures will be taken to form a force-reversing mechanism that will achieve the CO₂ peak level in 2023,reach the peak of energy consumption in 2026,and achieve the goal 7 years ahead of schedule.Considering various factors,the baseline scenario of the current measures cannot achieve the peak CO₂ emission targets set by the Country.The enhanced low-carbon scenario of adopting a force-reversing mechanism solely for the purpose of accomplishing the peak goal ahead of schedule makes a huge sacrifice in economic growth and energy structure adjustment in Shandong Province.Both scenarios are not suitable for low-carbon development in Shandong Province.Under the low-carbon scenario,in accordance with the CO₂ emission reduction measures in the energy plan and the low-carbon action plan,Shandong Province can not only achieve the goal in advance,but also take into account both ecological and economic development.Finally,according to the analysis results,the countermeasures that are suitable for the control of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in Shandong Province are proposed.