Research On Energy Consumption And Carbon Emission Trend Of Yangtze River Shipping Based On LEAP Model

With the development of society,the quality of life has improved,but at the same time the consumption of various energy sources has been accelerated.As the highest energy-consuming sector,the transportation sector has brought great convenience to people’s lives,but it also consumes a lot of energy and emits a lot of carbon dioxide and pollutants.As a result,the global greenhouse effect continues to intensify,and human activities are subject to many restrictions.The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions has become a hot topic in the world.In order to achieve the goal of carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060,China has opened an carbon trading platform and formulated corresponding emission reduction targets.At the same time,in order to promote the construction of ecological civilization,China has introduced green and low-carbon development as the main link in accelerating economic transformation and structural adjustment.However,as one of the main contributors to China’s economic development,the Yangtze River Shipping has continued to increase freight volume along the Yangtze River with its economic development,and the demand for energy by shipping has also increased,along with a rapid increase in carbon emissions.Therefore,studying the energy consumption and carbon emission trends of the Yangtze River shipping and exploring the peak time and magnitude of its carbon emissions is one of the most important tasks at present,and it is also the first task for seeking a carbon emission reduction strategy in line with the current status of the Yangtze River shipping.Although most scholars at home and abroad have done research on China’s carbon emissions from different fields,they mainly focus on the research of automobile exhaust emissions and industrial sector carbon emissions.Few scholars use the Yangtze River Shipping as the main body of research to analyze energy consumption and carbon emissions.Emissions.Therefore,it is necessary to study the energy consumption and carbon emissions of the Yangtze River shipping.The study includes discussions on past trends and future scenarios to reduce future emissions.This article briefly introduces the economic development and energy consumption status of the Yangtze River shipping from the ship structure,freight volume,total energy consumption,energy consumption structure and energy emission intensity,and calculates the total carbon emissions of the Yangtze River shipping through the carbon emission factor method.The results show that in recent years,the added value of shipping freight on the Yangtze River has risen steadily,and energy consumption has continued to increase.The LEAP model is used to construct the framework of the Yangtze River Shipping’s energy consumption and carbon emissions forecast from 2017 to 2047,and four scenarios of benchmark(BS),energy saving(ES),energy saving and low carbon(ELCS)and low carbon(LCS)are adopted.Method for forecasting,through four scenarios to predict energy consumption and carbon emissions under the influence of factors such as shipping GDP,energy structure,energy intensity,and energy carbon emission factors.The prediction results show that:(1)In terms of energy consumption,energy consumption in the four scenarios The quantity is LCS<ELCS<ES<BS,and the energy consumption structure is different in different development scenarios.For example,the consumption of diesel in BS is significantly higher than the other three scenarios.The two scenarios of ELCS and ES are similar in energy consumption structure.ELCS focuses on strengthening low-carbon policies,so the consumption of electricity is ELCS<ES.The energy consumption structure of the LCS scenario is more optimized than the other three scenarios,and the energy saving effect is more significant.Therefore,the energy saving potential of the Yangtze River shipping and transportation sector is relatively large.(2)In terms of carbon emissions,the LCS scenario will peak first,with a peak time of 2025 and a peak volume of 397.25 million tons;followed by the ELCS scenario peaking in 2030,with a peak volume of 469 million tons;BS and ES The scenario peak time is the latest,both in 2040,with peak volumes of 602 million tons and 528.57 million tons respectively.On this basis,in order to further explore the ways to reduce carbon emissions in the Yangtze River shipping,this study conducted a single-factor analysis of shipping GDP,energy structure,and energy emission intensity,and explored the impact of each factor on carbon emissions.The results showed that the three factors have an impact on carbon emissions.Both the magnitude and peak time of emission peaks have an impact.The change in energy emission intensity has the most significant impact on the magnitude and time of peak emissions,followed by changes in energy structure and shipping GDP.Among them,as the growth rate of shipping GDP goes from low to high,the carbon emissions are larger and the peak time is later;and the two factors,energy structure and energy emission intensity,are the smaller and the peak time of carbon emissions when the growth rate goes from low to high.early.After the above analysis,changes in shipping GDP are positively correlated with peak carbon emissions,and energy structure and carbon emission intensity are negatively correlated with peak carbon emissions.Therefore,by controlling the economic growth rate of the Yangtze River shipping,optimizing the energy structure and strengthening energy emission intensity,the peak time of the Yangtze River shipping carbon emissions can be accelerated and the peak amount can be reduced,so that the effect of energy conservation and emission reduction will be more prominent.