Analysis Of The Energy-consume And Mission-reduction Trend For Transportation In Yunnan Province Based On LEAP

With the development of social economy,the level of activity in the transportation has grown rapidly,and the problems of fuel energy shortage and air pollution caused by traffic emissions have become increasingly prominent.Yunnan Province is a major province of tourism resources,and its ecological environment is fragile.The transportation sector must implement relevant measures for energy conservation and carbon emission.Based on the above research background and the related research at home and abroad,this paper selected the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP)model built a transportation energy and environment model LEAP-Yunnan in Yunnan Province.Referring to the relevant information and considering the availability of data,this paper break the transportation industry in Yunnan Province into the passenger transportation department,the freight transportation department and the urban passenger transportation department and set the relevant parameters of energy intensity and environmental emission intensity of transportation.This paper use the regression analysis to predict the future traffic turnover and use scenario analysis to study the transportation energy consumption trend and environmental emissions in different scenarios through change the relevant factors in LEAP.This paper set 2016 as the base year and predict the energy consumption and pollutant emissions of Yunnan Province’s transportation in 2017-2035 in five different scenarios.The calculation and analysis results show that the transportation energy consumption of Yunnan Province in 2035 will be between 51277.8～81445.6 thousand tons of standard coal.The analysis results show that the comprehensive energy-saving scenario has the greatest energy-saving potential and the best emission reduction effect.In 2035,the energy consumption in the comprehensive scenario is 51277.8 thousand tons of standard coal,The emissions of CO2 are 101.3 million metric tons,the emissions of CO are 6021.1 thousand metric tons,the emissions of NOx are 831 thousand metric tons,and the emissions of N2O are 181.7 thousand metric tons.The emissions of CH4 are 13.1 thousand metric tons.Compared with the value in the baseline scenario,the above emissions are reduced by 39.77%,47.62%,33.64%,50.92%and 28.68%,respectively.Finally,after summarizing and analyzing the above calculation and analysis results,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for the energy conservation and emission reduction of transportation in Yunnan Province.