Study On The Influence Of Energy Structure Adjustment On Carbon Emission In Hebei Province Based On Leap Model

Climate is currently the world’s greatest concern,and global climate change refers mainly to the problem of climate warming caused by increased greenhouse gases.Large amounts of greenhouse gas emissions have led to an increase in environmental problems and have had a negative impact on economic and social and people’s lives.Energy consumption in Hebei province has long been dominated by coal,the energy structure is extremely unreasonable,in the long run,high energy consumption,large emissions brought about by serious environmental problems will continue for a considerable period of time.Therefore,adjusting the unreasonable energy structure has become one of the major problems to be solved in low carbon emission reduction in Hebei province,and exploring the key areas of energy structure adjustment in Hebei Province has become the focus of current work.Firstly,the Energy structure and introduces the related theoretical basis for carbon emissions,define the articles to the Energy structure and Energy structure adjustment the connotation and denotation of the definition,characteristics and steps of scenario analysis,the long-term Energy alternative Planning System(Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System,LEAP for short)model and introduces the modules,indicating the LEAP model and the use of the characteristics of the cause of the LEAP model.On this basis,the geographical environment,energy and resources,population,economic development level and industrial structure of hebei province are described.Analyzed the energy consumption structure in hebei province and the status quo of the carbon dioxide emissions,from the total energy consumption,primary energy consumption structure,terminal energy consumption structure,department of energy consumption structure,energy structure optimization process introduces the current situation of energy consumption structure in hebei province in five aspects,from carbon emissions characteristics and departmental situation this paper introduces the current situation of carbon emissions in hebei province;Then the relevant planning of each department in hebei province was sorted out.Based on the practical situation of Hebei province,the leap-frog model has been built and set up benchmark scenario,energy structure adjustment scenario,energy efficiency improvement scenario and integrated development scenario.Based on 2015,the model predicts the energy demand and carbon emissions of hebei province from 2016 to 2030 under different scenarios.The simulation results of the model are analyzed from three aspects,including energy demand under different scenarios,carbon emission under different scenarios,and emission reduction of hebei province under energy structure adjustment.The development trend of different scenarios and key areas of energy structure adjustment in hebei province in the future are analyzed.Finally,on the basis of analyzing the results,this paper establish a stable and highly efficient energy supply,transportation system,energy structure adjustment and residents can use structure optimization,the electric power development and power structure adjustment and industrial sector energy structure adjustment and optimization of energy structure,policy system and so on six aspects countermeasures and Suggestions are given.