| With the rapid economic development,the global energy demand continues to grow.Especially in recent decades,the development and utilization of a large amount of fossil energy and the increasing energy consumption have made the carbon emission problem increasingly serious,and regional air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions have caused The global climate change and other issues have become increasingly prominent.my country is currently in the rapid development stage of industrialization and urbanization,and the massive consumption of energy has led to a sharp increase in carbon dioxide emissions.In March 2021,General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that carbon peaking should be incorporated into the overall layout of ecological civilization construction to ensure that the carbon peaking goal is achieved by 2030.Provincial-level administrative regions are one of the important administrative units in my country to achieve established energy-saving and emission-reduction goals.Taking Sichuan Province,an important province in the southwestern region,as an example,to conduct energy consumption carbon emissions related research,the research results can be used for the relevant Sichuan provincial government departments to study and formulate The "14th Five-Year Plan" for Energy-Saving Development and the Long-Term Goals for 2035" provide data support and policy recommendations.Starting from the actual situation in Sichuan Province,this paper combs energy consumption carbon emission estimation,influencing factor decomposition and prediction related research based on theories of sustainable development,environmental Kuznets and low-carbon economy,and calculates energy consumption carbon emission in Sichuan Province.Analyze the temporal and spatial dynamic changes of energy consumption carbon emissions in Sichuan Province,decompose the influencing factors of energy consumption carbon emissions in Sichuan Province,and predict the change trend of energy consumption carbon emissions in Sichuan Province from 2021 to 2035.The main conclusions of this article are as follows:(1)Based on the 1999-2018 fossil energy consumption data in Sichuan Province and the2005-2018 industrial terminal energy consumption data,the energy consumption carbon emissions and related indicators in Sichuan Province were calculated,and the total carbon emissions and carbon emissions of energy consumption were calculated.Intensity,carbon emissions of various types of energy and carbon emissions of various industries are analyzed with time-series characteristics.The carbon emissions of energy consumption in Sichuan Province from 1999 to 2014 showed an increasing trend year by year,and from 2015 to 2018 it showed a downward trend;the carbon emission intensity of energy consumption showed a gradual downward trend;the secondary industry was the main source of carbon emissions from energy consumption;coal products The proportion of carbon emissions from fuel consumption is much higher than the other two energy sources.(2)Based on the 2010-2018 energy consumption data of 21 cities and prefectures,the total carbon emission and carbon emission intensity of energy consumption in each city(state)are calculated.The difference in carbon emissions from energy consumption among cities(prefectures)is also obvious.Chengdu has much higher carbon emissions than the other 20 cities and prefectures.The second and third places are Panzhihua and Leshan,and the last three are Bazhong,Ziyang and Ganzi.In addition,21 cities have experienced carbon peaks at different times.The top three in terms of carbon emission intensity are Aba Prefecture,Panzhihua and Leshan,and the last three are Zigong,Chengdu and Ziyang.(3)Use the LMDI model to decompose and analyze the changes in the total carbon emissions of energy consumption in Sichuan,and decompose the total carbon emissions into the product of five factors: energy structure,energy intensity,industrial structure,economic output,and population size.The contribution of various factors to changes in carbon emissions.In the beginning,the energy consumption structure of Sichuan Province played a role in promoting carbon emissions.With the adjustment of the energy structure,the energy consumption structure became an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions;the intensity of energy consumption always inhibited carbon emissions,which is to inhibit carbon emissions from energy consumption.Main factors: The industrial structure is the same as the energy consumption structure.With the adjustment of the industrial structure,the carbon emission of energy consumption has changed from a stimulating effect to a restraining effect.Economic output plays a stimulating role,and economic output is the leading factor in the growth of energy consumption carbon emissions;the population scale has promoted and inhibited the increase and decrease of the permanent population of Sichuan Province,respectively.(4)Based on the STIRPAT model,construct the Sichuan Province energy consumption carbon emission prediction model,and combine the gray prediction model and scenario analysis method to set up 6 scenarios,and use 2018 as the base year to measure Sichuan’s energy consumption carbon emissions from 2021 to 2035.Emissions are predicted.It is found that the current peak of energy consumption carbon emissions in Sichuan Province may be a phased peak.With the continuous economic growth and the increase in the urbanization rate,coupled with the slowdown in the optimization of energy structure,Sichuan ’ s energy consumption carbon emissions under the high-speed basic scenario Will continue to grow,and will not see a peak by 2035;the medium-speed basic scenario will reach its peak in 2031 and cannot meet the carbon peak target in 2030;the low-speed basic,high-speed energy-saving and medium-speed energy-saving scenarios can all successfully complete the carbon peak target,And there is no rebound within the research time limit;the low-speed energy-saving scenario can maintain the current achievements of Sichuan’s carbon peak and will continue to decline. |
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