Research On Energy Consumption And Carbon Emissions Of Shanghai’s Industrial Sector Based On LEAP Model

In recent years,China’s energy consumption and carbon emissions are increasing gradually.The release of the"14th five year plan"puts forward new requirements for energy conservation and emission reduction in Shanghai,that is,to achieve the peak of carbon emissions by 2025.As an important part of Shanghai City,industry is still facing the problems of high energy consumption and high pollution.Therefore,this study takes the industrial sector of Shanghai as the research object to explore the status of economic development,energy consumption and carbon emissions.Taking2017 as the base year,this paper uses leap model to set up four scenarios:benchmark scenario,low-carbon scenario,low-carbon green scenario and green scenario,and forecasts the trend of energy consumption and carbon emissions from 2020 to 2050from the aspects of future industrial structure,technology level and energy structure.The simulation results can provide ideas for the development of the industrial sector,and provide a reference for achieving the peak of carbon emissions before 2025.The results are as follows:（1）From 2010 to 2019,the economic scale of Shanghai’s industrial sector will gradually expand,and the industrial output value and industrial added value will increase from 3103.857 billion yuan and 694.393 billion yuan in 2010 to 3705.259billion yuan and 965.651 billion yuan in 2020.In 2017,among the industries above Designated Size,the top eight industries with the largest output value,such as automobile equipment manufacturing,accounted for nearly 70%.（2）From 2010 to 2019,the energy terminal consumption of industrial sector shows a downward trend,with the highest in 2011（61.6557 million tons of standard coal）and the lowest in 2018（54.3491 million tons of standard coal）.In 2017,the industrial terminal energy consumption was 55.9159 million tons of standard coal,of which the energy consumption of iron and steel,chemical industry and petrochemical industry accounted for more than 70%.（3）From 2010 to 2017,the CO₂ emissions of industrial sector showed a downward trend,with the highest in 2011（134.8mt）and the lowest in 2017（109.54mt）“In the early stage of the 12th Five Year Plan,the carbon emission level was relatively high,which exceeded 120mt.In 2014-2017,the emission was controlled,which was lower than 120mt.The emission reduction situation of the industrial sector was improved to some extent.In 2017,the CO₂ emissions of petrochemical,steel and electric heating industries accounted for more than 90%,and the emissions of electric heating industry accounted for more than 50%.（4）The terminal energy consumption of Shanghai’s industrial sector is about to reach its peak in 2030（benchmark scenario）,2028（low carbon,low carbon green scenario）and 2026（green scenario）,with the peak levels of 59.646 million tons of standard coal,58 million tons of standard coal and 57.4928 million tons of standard coal respectively.In 2025,the four scenarios are expected to exceed the energy saving target of 13.5%reduction of energy consumption per unit GDP in the 14th five year plan by 18.41%,19.57%,19.57%and 20.07%reduction rates of energy consumption per unit industrial added value.（5）The peak time of carbon emission of industrial sectors in Shanghai is 2029（baseline scenario）,2025（low carbon scenario,low carbon green scenario）and 2023（green scenario）,and the peak emissions are 109.57mt,104.63mt,104.11mt and102.50mt respectively.Except for the benchmark scenario,it is expected that the remaining scenarios can achieve the target of reducing CO₂ emissions per unit GDP by 18.0%in the 14th five year plan.Referring to the scenarios of low-carbon,low-carbon green and green,Shanghai’s industrial sector can take measures such as optimizing industrial structure,accelerating technological upgrading and adjusting energy structure to ensure the smooth realization of carbon emission peak before 2025.