The Mechanism And Empirical Study Of The Impact Of Technological Progress On China's Carbon Emissions

In recent years,China's carbon emissions continue to rank first in the world.It is extremely urgent to reduce carbon emissions.As one of the important factors affecting carbon emission,the study on the impact of technological progress on carbon emission can help coordinate the development paths of the two and promote the development of low-carbon economy.Firstly,this paper describes the theoretical mechanism and transmission path of technological progress affecting carbon emission.The complex influence of technological progress on carbon emission is analyzed.It also points out that technological progress can indirectly affect carbon emissions through economic growth,industrial structure and energy structure.Secondly,the DEA-Malmquist method and the improved IPCC calculation method are used to measure the technical progress and carbon emission of each province.On this basis,the present situation of China's development is described and statistically analyzed.It is found that,China's technological progress and carbon emission level showed an overall growth trend between 2000 and 2017.But they all have volatility trends and regional differences.Thirdly,a static panel model is constructed to analyze the total effect of technological progress on carbon emission.After that,considering the possible path dependence of carbon emission and the endogenous problem of variables,the lag term of carbon emission was introduced to build a dynamic panel model.And the system GMM method is used to estimate.The results show that,under the two models,technological progress has an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions.Also,the total carbon emission does have inertia effect,and the carbon emission in the previous period will affect the carbon emission in the current period.Further,in order to explore the transmission path of technological progress affecting carbon emissions,this paper introduces three mediating variables,namely economic growth,industrial structure and energy structure,to build mediating effect models.The results show that technological progress can increase carbon emission by promoting economic growth,and reduce carbon emission by optimizing industrial structure and improving energy structure.Finally,according to the research results,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions and future research prospects.