Dynamic Prediction And Regulation Of Quantitative And Quality Elements Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Chaohu Basin Based On System Dynamics

Due to the continuous development of China's economy and society,the water consumption is continuously increasing,the constraints on water ecological space,water environment capacity and total water resources are increasing,and the problem of water resources carrying capacity is becoming more and more obvious.At the same time,a series of such factors as land subsidence and water resources are exposed.A series of problems such as shortage.The research on water resources carrying capacity prediction and regulation is of great significance for promoting the harmony of people and water and realizing regional sustainable development.The thesis is basically based on the county(district)and the county water resources carrying capacity system as the basic unit,superimposed and combined step by step to constitute the upper level regional water resources carrying capacity system,and constructs the Chaohu Basin water resources based on system dynamics Carrying capacity quality factor prediction model,combined with orthogonal test optimization method,carried out optimization and control research on water resources carrying capacity of Chaohu Lake Basin,and achieved the following main results:(1)Based on the county water resources carrying capacity system as the basic unit,superimposing and combining the water resources carrying capacity system of the basin at the upper level step by step,a simulation model of the qualitative factors of water resources carrying capacity in Chaohu Basin based on system dynamics was established.(2)Apply the model to the simulation model of water resource carrying capacity factors of each county in Chaohu Lake Basin from 2017 to 2050,and synthesize the prediction of the quality factors of water resource carrying capacity in Chaohu Lake Basin.The results show that the water elements of Chaohu Lake Basin are mostly in a state of severe overload.Although there are reservoirs and dams to adjust the storage capacity,the annual runoff resource loss is more serious;the water quality elements are more overloaded.The source pollution is serious,and most of them are directly discharged into Chaohu Lake without effective treatment,which leads to serious water pollution in Chaohu Lake Basin.(3)Based on the above prediction results,the sensitivity analysis of the controllable variables in the Chaohu Lake Basin was carried out,and the optimal control variables were selected and combined with the orthogonal test optimization method to obtain the optimal control plan.The results show that the optimal scheme of water element carrying capacity of Chaohu Lake Basin is(-0.075,-0.1,-0.12),and the corresponding water element carrying status of Feidong County in 2035 and 2050 are 0.977 and 0.949 respectively.The optimal solution of the water quality carrying capacity of the Chaohu Lake Basin(COD)is(0.07,-0.24,-0.18,0),and the corresponding water carrying capacity of the Chaohu Basin in 2035 and 2050 is 1.119.,1.198.The water quality and water quality are all in the loadable state.In summary,the prediction and research of the qualitative elements of water resources carrying capacity in Chaohu Basin based on system dynamics have achieved good results and have strong practicability,which has opened up new ideas for the prediction and regulation of water resources carrying capacity.