Research On The Dynamic Prediction And Regulation Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In The Jing River Basin

With rapid population growth,economic development and changes in social consumption patterns,the study of the coupled system of "water resources-socio-economic-ecological environment" has become a major concern for sustainable development in countries around the world.The carrying capacity of water resources is considered to be an important indicator of the level of sustainable development of a region.The Jing River is a secondary tributary of the Yellow River on the Loess Plateau and the largest primary tributary of the Wei River.In recent years,with population growth,accelerated urbanisation and the construction of large energy bases,the contradiction between water resources supply and demand has become increasingly acute,the water environment has gradually deteriorated,and the problem of water security has gradually changed from insufficient supply to excessive carrying capacity.This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of the current situation of the water resources carrying capacity of the Jinghe River Basin,dynamic prediction and regulation of water resources elements,which can provide a basis for the government to implement the strictest water resources management system,optimise the industrial layout and efficient use of water resources.Based on the theory of water resources and system dynamics,the paper takes the Jing River Basin as the research object,analyses the factors affecting the water resources carrying capacity in terms of water resources formation conditions,socio-economic development,resource development and utilisation,and policy management,etc.,constructs a water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system for the Jing River Basin,carries out a comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity,establishes a water resources carrying capacity prediction model based on system dynamics,and adopts an orthogonal The main results are as follows:(1)20 evaluation indicators were selected from water resources,ecological environment and social and economic subsystems,such as green space per capita and waste water discharge,to build the Jing River Basin water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system.(2)The comprehensive carrying capacity index of water resources in the Jinghe River Basin was calculated using the TOPSIS evaluation method.2012-2021,the comprehensive carrying capacity of water resources in the Jinghe River Basin was in the mild overload or near overload range.The bearing capacity of the socio-economic subsystem is in the nearoverload range from 2012 to 2019,and enters the moderate range from 2020 to 2021;the bearing capacity of the water resources and ecological environment subsystems are in the mild overload range or near-overload range for 10 years.(3)The SD prediction model of the water resources carrying capacity of the Jing River Basin was constructed,focusing on the four zones of Guyuan,Pingliang,Qingyang and Xianyang to carry out dynamic prediction of the carrying capacity of water resources in the Jing River Basin from 2022 to 2035.The results show that the water resources carrying capacity of Guyuan and Qingyang in 2025,2030 and 2035 is in the moderate range,while the water resources carrying capacity of Pingliang and Xianyang in 2025 and 2030 is in the near overload range,especially Xianyang,which is still in the near overload range in 2035,and the average value of the comprehensive water resources carrying capacity index is 0.5in the next 14 years.(4)Based on the results of the sensitivity analysis,determine the regulation and control indicators of the water resources carrying capacity of the Jing River Basin,based on the SD model and TOPSIS model,use the extreme difference analysis results of the orthogonal test method to rank the regulation and control indicators affecting the carrying capacity of water resources,and determine the regulation and control schemes for the Pingliang and Xianyang areas as a 20% increase in the water consumption quota for green areas,a 20% decrease in the per capita domestic water consumption quota,a 45% decrease in the per capita industrial value added water consumption,and a 50% decrease in the per capita industrial value added water consumption.The water consumption of 10,000 yuan of industrial value added fell by30% and the average mu of irrigation water consumption fell by 45%,the water consumption of 10,000 yuan of industrial value added fell by 40%,and the per capita domestic water consumption quota fell by 50%.The results show that in 2025,2030 and 2035,the carrying index of the water resources carrying capacity of each area of the Jing River Basin is above0.6,and the water resources carrying capacity of the water resources has reached a moderate state.