Research On The Coordinated Development Of Shandong Peninsula Port Group Based On System Dynamics

In recent years,due to the gradually increasing the influence of global economic integration,both for the region and the whole country,international trade and economic have made indelible contribution for the economic development,the port as an important node connected to the sea and land transport,import and export trade of the development of port supply capacity and the efficiency of the port service requirements are also increasing,this also prompted each port scale expands unceasingly,port garages have increased.In Shandong province and coastal economic trade more developed provinces in China,the regional economy and the increase of import and export trade is to be reckoned with,especially when the national implementation of the strategy of "the Shandong peninsula blue economic zone",after the development of the port group of Shandong peninsula is a major step forward,one after another breakthrough has three port throughput of 300 million mark.However,with the increasing investment in port construction,problems such as high hinterland overlap,serious homogenization of port functions,and intensifying vicious competition among ports have emerged.This is also one of the reasons for the establishment of Shandong port group.Shandong port group is moving towards integration,but there are still many obstacles,among which,how to rationally allocate the resources of various ports in Shandong province and how to coordinate the development of port group are the key problems that need to be solved urgently.Therefore,it is urgent to study and analyze the port group system of Shandong peninsula.On the one hand,it is conducive to the regional coordination and common development of the port group.On the other hand,it is also crucial to the further development of the overall trade economy of Shandong province.'Because the composition of the port group system is relatively complex,and the factors that can affect it are also various,most of the current discussion and analysis of the port group system are only in the theoretical stage,and there are few studies on the dynamic simulation of the system.Based on the research of port group,on the basis of the literature,summarized the coordination theory about the development of the port group of Shandong peninsula,through qualitative SWOT of the development situation of Shandong peninsula port group is analyzed,and based on the thought of system dynamics,the Shandong peninsula port group of investment analysis model is established and the Shandong peninsula port group of the coordinated development model.Under the theoretical guidance of macroeconomics,reasonable dynamic model parameter variables are set.And by the method of econometrics,the data studied were analyzed statistically.For the Shandong peninsula port group model closer to the actual system has done the full preparation.Considering location factors and data acquisition factors,this paper selected three major ports in the Shandong peninsula port group as research objects,namely Qingdao,Yantai and Rizhao port,and analyzed the development trend of these three ports by using the port group system model studied.First of all,through the test analysis of Shandong peninsula port group of system reliability of investment model,based on the change of investment,the coordinated development of port group system and hinterland economy trend to make analysis and research,and then build a model simulation of port group of cooperation between the possibility of coordinated development,and the simulation model was used to study the influence of different variables of port group system coordinated development,to the development of Shandong port group after line and effective rationalization proposal.