| With the rapid development of the economy,the contradiction between human society and the ecological environment is becoming increasingly strong,and the problem of water resource shortage is becoming increasingly prominent.In the context of the new era strategy,one of the important issues we face is how to achieve sustainable and high-quality development.At the same time,the research perspective has also shifted from a binary system to a diversified system.This article takes Yulin City as the main research area,Exploring the coupling and coordination relationship between the econom y population water resources environment system in Yulin City,using system dynamics as the main model and coupling coordination degree model as th e quantitative standard,simulating the future development trend of Yulin City,studying the factors that constrain the high-quality development of Yulin City,and proposing targeted suggestions.The main research results of the paper are as follows:(1)Based on the principles of high-quality development,an EPWE coupling coordination model was established,and a total of 24 indicators were selected to form an evaluation index system.The rationality of the model was verified through empirical analysis using Shaanxi Province as an example.The calculation results indicate that during the period from 2006 to 2020,the overall coupling coordination degree of the diversified system in Shaanxi Province increased from 0.617 to 0.787,and the development type changed from social lag type to ecological lag type.The problem of uneven development in various cities in Shaanxi Province has been improving year by year,and the spatial aggregation situation is not significant.Yulin City has gone through a tortuous development process of "barely coordinated-prim ary coordinated-barely coordinated-intermediate coordinated".Further grey correlation analysis was conducted on the indicators that affect the coupling coordination degree in Shaanxi Province,and the results showed that all indicators had a correlation degree greater than 0.7,indicating that the selected indicators have good representativeness and rationality.(2)Based on the analysis and prediction of the social and economic development trend of Yulin,a simulation model of Yulin’s multi coupled system is constructed based on system dynamics.The model includes 7 state equations,7 rate equation and 37 auxiliary equations.Selecting 6 main indicators and conducting historical tests on the model with the validation period from 2010 to 2019,the results showed that the relative error of over 95%of the simulated values was less than 10%,and the trend change was consistent with the true value.This indicates that the overall fitting effect of the constructed model is good and can be used to reasonably simulate the future development status of Yulin City.(3)Based on the system dynamics simulation model of Yulin City,scenario simulations were conducted on conventional(based on historical data development trends)and planning(based on existing government planning documents)schemes in Yulin City.The results showed that following the conventional trend,the water resource gap in Yulin City will continue to increase,with a water shortage of 690 million m3 by 2030;Under the planning mode,industrial water consumption is reduced by 253 million m3,Agricultural water consumption reduced by 107 million m3,But domestic water consumption increased by 30 million m3,Ecological water use increased by 49 million m3,The problem of water shortage can be improved.(4)On the basis of the planning scheme,five simulation schemes are set up by using the Control variates,and based on the analysis of the grey correlation of the multi system in Shaanxi Province,the evaluation index system of Yulin City is constructed.The development scenarios of Yulin City under different schemes are quantitatively analyzed by using the coupling coordination degree model.The calculation results show that the coupling coordination degree of Yulin City under the planning scheme is 0.70,which is in the primary coordination;The coupling coordination degrees of water-saving,industrial structure adjustment,environmental governance,livelihood improvement,and comprehensive plans are 0.725,0.723,0.741,and 0.712,0.824,respectively,which are higher than the planned plan.Yulin City has achieved good coordination under the comprehensive plan,indicating that these adjustment measures all contribute to the high-quality development of Yulin City.Among them,the environmental governance plan and water-saving plan have the most obvious improvement in coupling coordination degree,It indicates that the current environmental and water resource issues are important factors restricting the high-quality development of Yulin City.It is recommended to strengthen the governance of the environment and water resources. |
