Study On Risk Assessment Of Pension Real Estate PPP Project

In recent years,the number of aged people in China has grown rapidly.China has gradually become an aging society.Because of a lot of pension problems,the demand for pension real estate has also shown a rapid growth trend.However,due to the large scale of investment in pension real estate,long return period,and across multiple fields,developers are powerless.The traditional government supplying model is inefficient and can not meet existing needs.Introducing the PPP model into the pension real estate project and making full use of the strong financial and technological advantages of social capital can not only relieve the financial pressure of the government,but also improve the efficiency of service and management of the pension real estate project.There are so many participants in the pension real estate PPP project that the external environment and internal environment are more complicated.Therefore,risk assessment and risk prevention for the project is the key to the successful implementation of the pension real estate PPP project.The current research on pension real estate PPP projects mainly focuses on the selection of partners,pricing mechanism,government incentive mechanism,and the determination of concession period.There are few researches on the risk assessment of pension real estate PPP project.Moreover,the risk assessment index system is improvable.From the perspective of social capital,this paper will make a study on risk assessment of pension real estate PPP projects.Firstly,the concepts,characteristics,classification and operation modes of pension real estate are introduced.The concepts and classifications of PPP model are briefly analyzed.From the aspects of economic and policy environment,the necessity and feasibility of applying PPP model to pension real estate projects are analyzed.Then,based on the basis of literature research,combined with the characteristics of pension real estate,this paper establishes the initial risk assessment indicator system of pension real estate PPP projects from six aspects,including project construction risk,project operation risk,pension market risk,economic risk,government behavior risk and legal-policy risk.The Vague set method is used to screen the initial risk assessment indicator system.Finally,based on the analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method,a fuzzy comprehensive risk assessment model is constructed.The K project is selected for case analysis,and this paper will give some risk countermeasures and suggestions.The results show that the risk assessment indicator system and model of the pension real estate PPP project established in this paper are feasible and applicable.The innovations of this paper: establishing a risk assessment indicator system for pension real estate PPP project including 6 first-level indicators and 33 second-level indicators;using the analytic hierarchy process based on index scale system and entropy weight method to calculate weight of assessment indicators,and establishing a fuzzy comprehensive assessment model,it makes the assessment results more reasonable.