Research On Game Strategy Of Risk Allocation For Public-Private Partnership Projects

PPP model has played a huge role since it was vigorously promoted in the field of infrastructure and public services in China since 2014.The PPP model builds a risk allocation and benefit sharing management model based on contracts,and uses the market mechanism to improve the quantity,quality and efficiency of public service supply to meet the people's growing demand for infrastructure,and at the same time provides more investment opportunities for social capital,which is conducive to the growth and development of private enterprises.However,due to the complex financing structure,long construction period and incomplete contracts of PPP projects,risks exist in the whole life cycle of the project,while the differences in the goals of relevant stakeholders lead to the great variability,complexity and subjectivity in the decision-making and implementation of risk allocation of PPP projects.Therefore,how to realize how to realize the risk in the PPP project participation main body between the reasonable share,how to feedback the undiscovered risk factors and risk is not reasonable to risk allocation again,how to build a scientific and effective risk allocation regulatory mechanism as guarantee,to ensure implementation is particularly important to the success of the PPP mode,become the focus of the PPP risk management research.Based on game theory,this paper studies the risk allocation strategies of government and private sectors in PPP projects.Firstly,through to the PPP project risk allocation research literature at home and abroad,has been clear about the related concepts of the PPP risk allocation,based on the idea of whole life cycle risk management of risk allocation process design for three stages,and give full consideration to the related interest subjects game relation,designed the PPP project risk allocation framework.Secondly,for the PPP project risk identification,this paper put forward on the basis of the questionnaire,using the structural equation model to analyze the risk level factors index(latent variables)and secondary factor index(measuring variables),transverse and longitudinal relationship between revealing the importance of risk and risk factors and interactions between the conduction.For risk assessment,this paper adopts analytic hierarchy process(ahp)and fuzzy mathematical synthesis algorithm to construct a risk assessment model of PPP project,which reflects the importance of risk level.In the stage of preliminary risk allocation,the risk factors into the risk allocation model,based on the theory of Nash equilibrium,according to government departments and the private sector to share the risk of different strategies,consider the risk of their equity and the overall yield of the project,based on the objective function is the social benefit maximization of Lagrange solution,get the optimal risk proportion.The results of the model analysis show that the initial risk allocation of PPP projects should make the party with high risk preference and strong tolerance bear the corresponding high risk,this conforms to the risk allocation principle of PPP projects.In the stage of risk negotiation,the process of risk allocation is abstracted as a continuous bidding process,and a sequential bargaining dynamic game model for risk allocation under complete and incomplete information is constructed,the different strategies of risk allocation between government and private sectors are analyzed.Considering the cost loss caused by the increase of negotiation,the share of risk transfer and the transfer probability,the optimal risk allocation ratio is obtained.The results show that the weak private sector may suffer losses as a result of the asymmetric information between the two parties involved and the dominant position of the government.Therefore,adjustment mechanism and supervision mechanism should be introduced to protect the rights and in terests of the private sector.In the risk tracking stage,this paper summarizes 40 cases of PPP project risk redistribution game in China,identifies the key risk factors in risk redistribution,and makes statistics on the results of risk redistribution.Price adjustment is an important adjustment strategy for risk redistribution.This paper links price adjustment with risk change,and constructs a price adjustment model of PPP project under different risks of inflation rate change,exchange rate change an d labor cost change,taking into account tolerable interval and adjustment time interval to implement flexible price adjustment.The impact of price adjustment strategy on NPV can be analyzed by Monte Carlo stochastic simulation.In terms of the regulation strategy of risk allocation,since the game of the PPP project participants is repeated for many times,under the condition of information asymmetry and with the constant change of the environment,they learn and evolve in the process,so evolutionary game theory is adopted to analyze the evolution mechanism of the regulation strategy and solve the stability point.In this paper,the asymmetric factors of reputation and status of both parties are introduced into the replication dynamic equation to analyze their influence on the risk regulation of PPP projects.This paper proposes to strengthen government supervision from the perspective of reputation constraint and alleviate the problems caused by the imperfection of PPP laws and regulations.Through reasonable government guarantee,the private sector can choose to strictly control the project quality and improve the project efficiency.Finally,this paper makes an empirical analysis of PPP project of underground comprehensive pipeline Gallery in Harbin.According to the project situation and the questionnaire issued to the experts,the model parameters are reasonably assigned,and the above model is tested.The empirical analysis shows that the optimal risk-sharing ratio determined by the model conforms to the risksharing principle of PPP project and reduces the total risk of the project.Monte Carlo stochastic simulation is used to analyze the relationship between government risk-taking ratio and NPV under different price adjustments.Based on the evolutionary game model,numerical simulation analysis shows that under the long-term reputation incentive mechanism and the government's regulatory responsibilities,the private sector has chosen to actively share,the last part of the article proposes comprehensive regulatory strategy of risk allocation.This paper studies the risk allocation strategy of PPP project based on game theory,further enrishes and improves the risk management theory and method system of PPP projects,provides theoretical guidance and reference for reducing the overall risk of PPP projects and improving project efficiency,and provides reference for the design and negotiation of PPP contracts.Provide the basis for the government's regulatory decision.