The Risk Evaluation Of A Large Desalination Water Diversion Engineering Project Based On FAHP

With the expansion of cities and population growth,the imbalance of supply and demand of water resources has become an important factor affecting the survival and sustainable development of cities.More than 50% of China's large and medium-sized cities are in a water shortage state.Water diversion project can regulate the uneven distribution of water and time distribution in regional water resources and realize rational allocation of water resources.So water diversion project is widely concerned by governments.In addition,water diversion project generally has the features of long line,lager scale,project content,complex technology,long construction time,occupy more social resources,involving a wide range of stakeholders,and has complicated environmental conditions,so the water diversion project faces many risk factors in the process of implementation.In order to reduce or avoid the risk of loss and to make the project successful,identify the project risk factors and evaluate and control the risk factors is finally an important means to improve the social and economic benefits.In this paper,the research object is the A water desalination pilot project.Firstly,we introduce the background and research significance of this paper,and based on the study of the scholars at home and abroad,we put forward the research content and research methods of this paper.Next,this article involves the concept of risk and risk management.According to the characteristics of the water diversion project,and combining with the project risk management process,water diversion engineering project risk evaluation model is established.Again,under the condition of A project this paper uses the method of WBS and expert investigation method to identify specific risk factors from the angles of nature,society,technology,resources and management.And this paper builds up the risk evaluation index system,then uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on AHP method to evaluate risk.Through the primary and secondary fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,finally it determines the A project risk level,and gets the different risk factors facing the different risk levels.Finally,according to the results,the A project risk level is medium.Among them,the natural risk level is relatively higher,the social risk is lower,the technical risk level is medium,the resources risk level is medium,the management risk level is relatively higher.In terms of the nature risk factors,the risk levels of the geological inhomogeneous settlement,tidal and force majeure are relatively high.In terms of the social risk,the risk level of intervention of tourists and vessels is relatively high.In terms of technical risk,unreasonable investigation and design and unreasonable construction process are relatively high.In terms of resource risk,the supply of raw materials and the price rise are relatively high.In terms of management risk,the poor management ability of owners isrelatively high.Finally,according to the evaluation results,the countermeasures and countermeasures are given to the specific risk factors of the risk level of medium and above,and finally the coping list is formed.