Research On Risk Assessment Of Real Estate Projects Based On Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

Since the beginning of the 21 st century,China's real estate economy is the core sector,and has become an important source of support for China's economy.However,the level of control over the real estate market in China is still low.Through the formulation of measures and policies by various relevant departments,the intensity of market control is increasing.However,before investing in real estate projects,real estate companies must consider the impact of various internal and external factors to carry out risk assessment,effectively decrease the economic losses caused by insufficient project risk assessment,and promote the risk assessment of real estate projects at a reasonable level.First of all,residential real estate is the core work of project risk management of real estate companies,and also the object of this study.Through the systematic induction and analysis of the research status of real estate project risk at home and abroad,it is found that project risk research mainly focuses on a single factor.Therefore,this paper analyses and summarizes the existing real estate project risk factors,and systematically designs the real estate project risk index system.In this paper,project risk is divided into seven aspects,including natural risk,policy change risk,economic factor risk,innovation risk,project construction risk,social risk and organizational management risk.Then,the seven major factors of project risk are subdivided into more than 30 sub-risk factors.This method effectively solves the complex system problem of real estate project evaluation risk which needs to consider multi-level and multifactor.Secondly,by using the method of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP),the influential weights of various factors in the real estate project risk index system can be quickly and effectively obtained,the hierarchical analysis structure can be constructed,the main factor layers can be determined,the main risk factors sources can be identified,and the sub-elements can be determined.Finally,the model is established by using case data to analyze and verify.Based on seven major influencing factors of project risk,a comprehensive evaluation model of project risk is established.Combining with the background of strengthening the supervision of the current real estate market,the weight factor of policy risk is reasonably increased,so as to make the risk evaluation model of real estate project more reasonable.Based on the real estate project example of Huicuiyuan in Jining,Shandong Province,the validity of the model is verified to ensure that it meets the risk requirements of real estate projects.By using the method of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP),this paper realizes the quantitative analysis of the comprehensive risk assessment of real estate projects,which can effectively help real estate companies reduce the investment risk of projects,improve the management efficiency of project management departments,reduce risk losses and increase project returns,and has certain guiding significance for the existing theoretical basis of real estate project risks.