Dynamic Prediction And Regulation Of Quantitative And Quality Elements Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Feidong County Based On System Dynamics

With the rapid growth of population,the rapid development of economy and the transformation of social consumption patterns,the demand for global water resources is increasing day by day.Water resources has become the top priority of sustainable development,which plays a positive role in promoting the balance between regional water resources and population economy,ensuring water security and maintaining social stability.In view of this,on the basis of mechanism research,this paper analyzed the influencing factors of the quantity and quality factors of water resources carrying capacity from the aspects of water resources conditions,social and economic development,resources development,utilization and management.Then,the diagnostic index set of quantitative and qualitative elements of regional water resources carrying capacity was constructed,and the prediction model of quantitative and qualitative elements of water resources carrying capacity based on system dynamics was established.This model was applied to Feidong County,Anhui Province,and the quantitative and qualitative factors of water resources carrying capacity in Feidong County were predicted and regulated by using orthogonal experimental method.The main achievements were as follows:(1)The models of population subsystem,social economy subsystem,water resources subsystem and water environmental pollution subsystem based on system dynamics were established respectively.(2)The model was applied to the prediction of the quantity and quality factors of water resources carrying capacity in Feidong County from 2017 to 2050.The fitting test of indicators including total population,GDP,water storage,total water consumption,COD emissions and ammonia nitrogen emissions showed that the model is accurate and credible when applied to the dynamic prediction of the quantity and quality factors of water resources carrying capacity in Feidong County.The results of model showed that most of the water quantity factors in Feidong County are in the overload state in the forecast year,and the value of load-bearing state is on the rise,but far from reaching the serious overload state.Water quality factors had an improvement trend in 2035-2050,but most of them are in the critical or overload state.Water pollution is serious and especially serious in the period of 2017?2035.(3)Based on the above simulation model,the control indexes of the quantity and quality factors selected from the diagnostic indexes were quantitatively regulated by stages through orthogonal experiments.According to the results of range analysis,the control indexes of the quantity and quality factors affecting the carrying capacity of water resources were sorted.And combined with the actual situation of the research object,we can draw the experimental conclusion of different scenarios and determine the best control scheme.After regulation,the carrying state values of water quantity elements in Feidong County in 2035 and 2050 were 0.950 and 1.001 respectively,the carrying state values of water quality elements(COD)were 1.200 and 0.997 respectively,and the carrying state values of water quality elements(ammonia nitrogen)were 1,200 and 0.786 respectively.The results showed that the quantity and quality factors of water resources carrying capacity in Feidong County have reached the critical/loadable state in 2035 and 2050.In summary,the study on the prediction and control of the quantity and quality factors of water resources carrying capacity in Feidong County based on system dynamics was reasonable and feasible,which provided decision-making basis for the government of Feidong County to implement the most stringent water resources management system,strengthen water resources management,optimize industrial layout and improve water resources utilization efficiency.And it has a wide application prospect in the prediction and control of county water resources carrying capacity.