Study On The Influence Of Trade Cost To The Trade Potentiality Between China And The Countries Along The Belt And Road

Since The Belt and Road Initiative was put forward,many countries have taken their own strategy to seek integrating with "The Belt and Road Initiative".By April 2019,126 countries and 29 international organizations have signed the "The Belt and Road Initiative" cooperation document with China,and the relevant cooperation concepts and propositions of "The Belt and Road Initiative" have also been included in the outcome documents of important international mechanisms such as the United Nations,the Group of Twenty,the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Organization,and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.The Belt and Road Initiative has been recognized by more and more countries.Various countries attach great importance to the study of "The Belt and Road Initiative",but most of the existing research analyze the significance of constructing "The Belt and Road" from the macro strategic point of view,the implementation path and its impact on the relevant provinces and cities in China,while the research on the relationship between trade costs and trade potential between China and the countries along "The Belt and Road" is very few.What factors are the trade costs composed of? How does the cost of trade affect Chinese exports and how does it affect the size of trade potential? The existing research is unable to answer this.This paper studies the problem of how trade cost affects trade potential under the background of "The Belt and Road Initiative",tries to sort out and study the action mechanism between trade cost and trade potential,finds out their relationship,and puts forward suggestions,so as to provide useful reference for the trade development between China and the countries along "The Belt and Road".The paper is divided into seven chapters:Chapter 1,Introduction.Outline the background and significance of the topic,trade cost and trade potential literature review,research content,research methods,innovation points and deficiencies.Chapter 2,the theoretical basis and mechanism analysis of the impact of trade cost on trade potential.(1)On the one hand,the comparative advantage theory,the new institutional economics theory,the new trade theory and the new economic geography areintroduced to define the trade cost.It is found that the above theories do not define the trade cost well after combing,although most of the theories have the intersection with the trade cost,they cannot be completely equal to the trade cost.On the other hand,it also elaborates the theory of the influence of trade cost on trade growth.According to the needs of this paper,theory of comparative advantage is improved,and on the basis of production cost,transaction cost,institutional cost and natural cost are added,and the new mechanism of trade cost affecting trade is found.The multilateral resistance gravity model is studied.The model illustrates that the trade between the two regions is determined by the relative cost.The influence mechanism of trade cost on export expansion margin is also studied.(2)The mechanism analysis of the impact of trade cost on trade potential is described.An analytical framework for the impact of trade costs on trade potential is derived.It is mainly reflected in the following three aspects: the impact of transport costs on trade potential,the impact of trade policy costs on trade potential,and the impact of transaction costs on trade potential.Chapter 3,The analysis of trade cost between China and countries along "The Belt and Road".(1)The composition of trade cost between China and countries along "The Belt and Road" is analyzed in detail.The trade cost is divided into three categories:transportation cost,trade policy cost and transaction cost.(2)The trade cost between China and the countries along "The Belt and Road" is measured.This paper measures transportation cost:the container cost of export goods,the comprehensive level of transportation facilities,the distance between the two countries,whether the two countries are neighboring countries,import and export time;This paper measures trade policy cost:the prevalence of non-tariff trade barriers,the tedious degree of customs formalities,the comprehensive level index of tariff rate,anti-dumping cost;This paper measures transaction cost:the cost of legal relief,the utilization rate of Internet users,the intensity of intellectual property protection and so on.Chapter 4,The present situation of trade and the basis of trade potential between China and the countries along "The Belt and Road".(1)The present situation of trade between China and countries along "The Belt and Road" is introduced in detail.The contents include: the present situation of the docking of the development strategy between China and the countries along "The Belt and Road",the present situation of thetrade development between China and the countries along "The Belt and Road",and the problems existing in the trade development between China and the countries along "The Belt and Road".(2)the basis of trade potential between China and the countries along the "The Belt and Road".The analysis is mainly carried out from the perspective of five sectors: China has great import potential in primary products,China has great export potential in labor and resource-intensive industries,China has obvious competitive advantage in low-level technology-intensive industries,export potential has not been fully released,Chinese export potential in intermediate technology-intensive industries needs to be developed,and China has obvious disadvantages in advanced technology-intensive industries,there is great potential for imports.The Chapter 5 analyzes the regional trade potential between China and region along "The Belt and Road".It is divided into seven regions: trade potential between China and ASEAN,East Asia,CIS,Africa,South Asia,West Asia,Central and Eastern Europe.In the sixth chapter,the influence of trade cost on trade potential between China and countries along "The Belt and Road" is analyzed empirically.(1)On the basis of trade gravity model,bilateral transportation cost,trade policy cost and transaction cost are introduced into gravity model,and the extended trade gravity model is obtained.Fifty-seven countries along "The Belt and Road" and five developed countries are selected as sample countries,using traditional gravity model regression,including multilateral trade resistance factor regression,and analyzing the influence of trade cost on trade between China and the countries along "The Belt and Road".(2)From the sectoral point of view,the gravity model is used to regression the import and export trade flow of primary products,labor-intensive manufactured goods,capital-technology-intensive manufactured goods and 16 kinds of explanatory variables between China and the countries along "The Belt and Road" by using the multilateral trade resistance factor gravity model,and the influence of trade costs on the import and export trade between China and the countries along "The Belt and Road" is quantitatively analyzed.Chapter 7,conclusions and policy recommendations.On the basis of summing up the trade cost and trade potential between China and the countries along "The Belt and Road",this paper puts forward some policy suggestions.The contents include:(1)Summing up the conclusions of transportation cost,trade policy cost and transaction cost;summing up the conclusion of trade potential between China and countries along "The Belt and Road".(2)Putting forward some suggestions on realizing better economic and trade cooperation between China and countries along "The Belt and Road".The important innovation of this paper is to construct an analysis framework of the impact of transportation cost,trade policy cost and transaction cost on trade potential.The relevant research is helpful to break through the existing theoretical limitations and provide a certain theoretical basis for further promoting the high quality development of foreign trade between China and the countries along "The Belt and Road".The framework is mainly used to quantitatively evaluate the impact of trade costs on the trade potential between China and the countries along "The Belt and Road".However,the study of the relationship between trade costs and trade potential has not gone deep into the enterprise level.In the future research,it is necessary to research the relevant data and further analyze the formation mechanism and influencing factors of the competitive characteristics at the enterprise level.