Research On The Evolution Of Microblog Public Opinion Based On Self-organization Theory

With development from Web1.0 to 2.0, and to the current social media, information transmission methods have undergone a fundamental change, from one-to-many style to producing by users themselves, and then being free to distribute and communicate. In this way, the circumstance of public opinion has changed a lot. Any message put out by a user may grow into a piece of public opinion in a quite short time, after fission transmission. Some public opinion of negative effects often cause irreversible damage to the community. For example, the 2008 Guo Meimei Event has brought terrible attack to the Red Cross and even the social trust. Under such background, the research for the moving discipline of public opinion is quite important. Only after seizing the moving discipline of public opinion, we could find out the effective methods of guiding public opinion, exploiting its moving discipline.However, from 1990 s, the research on public opinion has stuck in traditional linear research level, which does not comply with the moving of public opinion. There are two reasons: on one hand, public opinion is composed of many users' views; on another hand, internet users are intelligent individuals of rich thoughts, affected by many political, economic, cultural, and psychological elements. Thus, it is biased that using simple linear method to research on this complex system. In this thesis, we firstly use nonlinear method to research on the moving discipline of public opinion, then put forward the new method of guiding public opinion, maybe helpful for the relevant managing department of public opinion.The main parts in this thesis are from Chapter III to V. We study micro-blog public opinion system from openness and far from equilibrium in Chapters III and IV, in order to proof it whether meets the condition of dissipative structures. At the same time, we also study the nonlinear interactions between subsystems, and stochastic dynamic systems-- fluctuations, then reveals the internal dynamic mechanism micro-blog public system. The next step is to study the composition of micro-blog during the evolution cycle. At last in Chapter V, we put forward the the new method of guiding public opinion, and proof its rightness combining with actual cases. In this thesis, many theories come from natural science. It is seldom applied in humanities, thus it is new interdisciplinary attempt, which has innovative meaning to the research on public opinion.