Research On Dynamic Evolution Characteristics And Multi-agent Simulationof Micro-blog Public Opinion

With the rapid development and popularization of the Internet, it has become the major incubator of public opinion. Micro-blog is a new media which is relying on the Internet and has been fully promoted and applied after it has been online since august 2009. The thirty-fifth Chinese Internet development report pointed out that, until December 2014, China’s micro-blog users was 249 million, and the use rate was 38.4%. The existing research of public opinion on micro-blog was more qualitative analysis, from quantitative point to reflect the dynamic evolution process was less, so it’s difficult to guide the actually public opinion on micro-blog. This paper based on the analysis on the characteristics of dynamic evolution of micro-blog public opinion, and attempted to introduce multi-agent modeling and simulation method to study the dynamic evolution of public opinion on micro-blog form quantitative point, in order to provide scientific basis for micro-blog public opinion guidance.On the basis of study relevant theory, such as network public opinion, micro-blog public opinion, SIR model etc. we used multi-agent modeling and simulation method to explore and research public opinion on micro-blog. The main work is as follows: a. analyzed the elements and propagation path of micro-blog with the view of ecology; b. introduced self-organization theory to research dynamic evolution process and mode of public opinion on micro-blog; c. used multi-agent modeling and simulation method to instead probabilities in SIR model, take the differences between subjects into consideration, and hope to describe the interactive process between subjects more meticulous; d, used Netlogo platform to simulate the interaction process between subjects, and results showed that the model can reflect the actual event. And to provide some guidance to the health development of public opinion on micro-blog by observed the simulation process and results to found some dynamic evolution rules.The main contribution is:(1) introduced self-organization theory to research dynamic evolution process and constructed the dynamic evolution mode of public opinion on micro-blog;(2) used multi-agent modeling and simulation method to instead probabilities in SIR model, which reflected the structure of micro-blog and interaction process of subjects.