Study On The Development Path Of Key Industries Under The Constraints Of Carbon Emissions Quota

Along with the energy consumption surging,the environment pollution,green-house effect and resources shortage become more and more grim.The carbon dioxide emissions result in the prominent environmental problems.As the largest development country,China face the particular stage of economic development speed switching,economic structure adjustment and former policy stimulation,it’s urgent to change the economic development patten.The culprits of a large amount of carbon dioxide emissions are industries,the key intustries have largest impact on the industrial carbon emissions.Firstly,the key industries are defined.Secondly,from the perspective of carbon emissions and industrial output,the key industries as the study object are selected by grey relational analysis.Then,the carbon emission of various key industries are predicted on the basis of GM(1,1)model.In the distribution of histrical emissions and GDP principle,every key industriy is allocated quotoes under the carbon emission reduction target of 2020,the result show that Mining and Washing of Coal,Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals,production and supply of Electric Power and Heat Power have high pressure of reducing carbon emissions,so these industries are defined ’high-pressure’key industries.Furthermore,Based on STIRPAT decomposition model,the influence factors of carbon emission are decomposed into energy intensity,energy structure and industrial output.Lastly,combining with decreasing the energy intensity and energy structure,the paper set the low-carbon and ultralow-carbon scenario to analyse the carbon emissions of ’high-pressure’ key industries during 2015 to 2025.The paper found the key industries carbon emissions under two scenarios exhibit inverted U-shape curves and are consistent with the Environmental Kuznets Curve theoery.Therefore,the development path of the Mining and Washing of Coal is between low-carbon scenarion and ultralow-carbon scenario,Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals is ultralow-carbon scenario,production and supply of Electric Power and Heat Power is low-carbon scenarion in the future.But the other key industries should keep the current development pattern follow ’New Normal’ policy during 2015 to 2020.The research result will conclude important reference for China’s main polluted industry to enact energy savig and emission reduction policies.