Research On China’s Provincial Carbon Emissions Quota

As the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases,China is facing the dual pressure of energy conservation,emission reduction and economic growth.At the 2014 Paris Climate Conference,China clearly stated that it would meet the emission reduction targets for carbon emissions in 2030 and continue to issue multiple policy documents to address climate change.By the end of 2017,China’s carbon trading market with its power generation industry as the breakthrough has officially started,indicating that China’s carbon emission reduction has gradually shifted from government-driven to market-oriented,and formulating a reasonable quota allocation plan is the basis for a sound carbon emissions trading market.Because there are great differences in the economic development level,resource endowments,industrial structure and emission reduction potential of each province in China,it is of great significance to study how to achieve a fair and effective allocation of the total carbon emissions target between provinces.First of all,This paper discusses the distribution status of China’s provincial carbon emissions from the perspective of fairness and efficiency.From the perspective of fairness,based on the cumulative carbon emissions per capita over the years,the carbon Gini coefficient was used to measure the degree of fairness in the allocation of carbon emissions.The results show that the spatial distribution of carbon emissions in China’s provinces is relatively fair.From the perspective of efficiency,the DEA-Malmquist model is used to measure carbon emission efficiency and environmental total factor productivity in 30 provinces and regions in China.The results show that there are significant differences in distribution efficiency among provinces and regions,with the exception of Qinghai Province and eastern developed provinces.The output efficiency is higher than that of the central and western provinces;the environmental TFP of the developed provinces in the east is generally higher than that of the central and western regions,and technological progress is the main driving force driving the increase in the total factor productivity of the environment.Based on this,based on the country’s overall efficiency and the fair trade-off perspective of emission reduction entities,a carbon quota allocation model is constructed using scenario analysis,so that China’s provincial carbon quota allocation plan for 2017-2030 will be obtained,and the carbon emission reduction results will be disaggregated with countries.Average allocation targets were compared to analyze the carbon emission reduction paths in each province.The study finds that:From the perspective of the distribution of carbon quotas in all provinces,only the carbon emission quotas for Shanxi,Ningxia,and Xinjiang are negative,and the proportion of emission reductions to be achieved in each province and region shows a significant gap.The principle of equal allocation of carbon emission reductions by the country is not conducive to the fairness of carbon emissions distribution between,provinces,and it will I inevitably lead to overall national efficiency losses.The carbon quota scheme based on fairness and efficiency is more consistent with the concept of low-carbon economy development in China.Finally,based on the research conclusions,this paper fully draws lessons from the experience of EU carbon allocation mechanism,and proposes relevant policies to promote regional carbon reduction and optimize carbon emission quotas in China.