| "Green" and "low carbon" has become key words when all global society pursue the growth of economy.Our country should have the big country style in the global low-carbon development,especially with the backgrond of the rising influence in political and economic.Energy production and energy consumption in Shaanxi play an important role in the whole country.And its economic growth faster than the national average growth rate.Also energy consumption growth is still faster,which result in the carbon emissions per unit of GDP is still high.Shaanxi Province in 2010 was approved as the first batch of low-carbon pilot provinces.So Shaanxi province should actively respond to national policy guidance to set up a good example for other areas.Shaanxi has worked out a plan called《The implementation plan of Shaanxi low carbon pilot project》,which set a goal that energy intensity in 2020 should be 13%lower than in 2015,and carbon emission intensity decreased by 15%compared with 2015 and 45%compared with 2005,and third industry accounted for GDP should increase to 45%,and non fossil energy should account for about 15%.Considering the fact that Our commitment that carbon emissions reached the maximum in around 2030 and the important position of Shaanxi Province,this paper describes the carbon emissions of Shaanxi Province and discuss the influence factors of carbon emission,and then build forecasting model of carbon emissions in Shaanxi to forecast carbon emissions in Shaanxi from 2016 to 2050.Finally,this paper provides suggestions for the construction of Shaanxi Province.Conclusions are as follows:(1)The carbon emissions in Shaanxi keep steady rise from 2000,average growth rate reached 10.24%,and the fastest growth is 25.8%;Carbon emissions from the second industry accout for 60%of all,but it’s slowing down while carbon emissions from the third industry increase from 11.1%in 1996 to around.20%in 2015.According to the calculation of this paper,carbon emissions from the resident life accout for 13%of all,so we should not ignore that.Carbon emission intensity decreased rapidly from 1996-2000,but mildly after 2000.(2)This paper analysis the carbon emissions of production department and resident life and finds that per capita wealth effect is the most important facter for the increased carbon emissions of production department while the energy intensity effect is the most important facter for the dicreased carbon emission of production department.Population effect、industrial structure effect and energy consumption structure play a unimportant role to the increase emission.Per capita energy consumption effect is the most important facter for the increased carbon emissions of resident life,resident life energy consumption structure is good for dicreased when Population effect just devote little to increase emission.(3)This paper constructs regression among the carbon emission、GDP、population、industrial structure、energy consumption structure、urbanization rate and energy intensity.The model is ridge regression.we find that GDP、population、industrial structure、energy consumption structure、urbanization rate are positive effect,only the energy intensity is negative effect、Coefficients are 0.1979、3.6101、1.4531、0.3411、0.2506、-0.1546.In terms of the extent of the impact,population is the greatest impact.(4)This paper set three scenarios according STIRPAT model.The three scenarios are high emission scenario、medium emission scenario and low emission scenario.After forcasting the carbon emission of Shaanxi in 2016-2050,this paper find that only in the low emission scenario the carbon emission of Shaanxi can get the peak value in 2030,in the high emission scenario and medium emission scenario,there is inflection point in 2030,but carbon emissions still rise untill 2050,but the growth rate has been slow down.《The implementation plan of Shaanxi low carbon pilot project》required that carbon emission intensity decreased 45%compared with 2005,after forcasting the three scenarios all can complete the goal. |
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