| The manufacturing economy in Chongqing is developing rapidly and is the main source of carbon emissions.The major carbon-emitting industries are also the key to the strong decoupling of carbon emissions from manufacturing and economic growth in Chongqing,it has an important influence on the effect of energy saving and emission reduction in manufacturing industry,therefore,to explore the mechanism of decoupling effect on the influencing factors of carbon emission in key manufacturing industries in Chongqing,it is of great significance to implement the“Double carbon” emission reduction policy for manufacturing industry.By measuring the carbon emission of 31 manufacturing industries in Chongqing,the paper selects the key carbon emission industries with the method of cluster analysis based on the average annual carbon emission and per capita carbon emission,the changes in carbon emissions,energy consumption and economic development of key industries are sorted out,and the changes in carbon emissions of key industries over the years are decomposed by the LMDI model,the contribution rate of influencing factors to the carbon emission change of different industries was obtained,and the effect of influencing factors on carbon emission was explored from short-term and long-term,then,the paper constructs the Tapio Decoupling Index model to analyze the decoupling state between the economic growth and the carbon emission of the key manufacturing industries,and to understand the decoupling state and the current decoupling degree of the key industries,then,based on the LMDI model,the paper decomposes and extends the Tapio decoupling Index model,and probes into the decoupling efforts of different influencing factors on carbon emissions and economic growth of key industries,in the end,the model of decoupling prediction is constructed,and three different scenarios of baseline,low-carbon and energy-saving are set up by scenario analysis method,forecast2021-2050 key industry carbon emissions and economic growth decoupling changes.The results show that:(1)non-metallic mineral products,Ferrous smelting and calendering,chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing,oil,coal and other fuel processing,as well as Non-ferrous metal and calendering,are the main carbon emitters in Chongqing’s manufacturing sector,with variations in emissions and economic growth among key sectors.(2)energy structure,energy intensity,industry structure,economic scale and population scale all have effects on carbon emissions.Energy intensity has a significant restraining effect on carbon emissions,and economic scale has a significant promoting effect on carbon emissions.(3)the decoupling of carbon emissions from key manufacturing industries and economic growth has a positive trend,but most of them have not achieved strong decoupling and the decoupling state is unstable.Energy structure and energy intensity are the key factors for the decoupling of carbon emissions,efforts to decouple industry structure and population size have been smaller.(4)setting the change rate of influencing factors reasonably can effectively accelerate the decarbonization time of each industry,and promote the key industries of manufacturing industry to realize the ideal state of strong decoupling of carbon emission as soon as possible. |
