| In recent years,commercial real estate economy has developed rapidly,including 18-20 million square meters' increasing of new construction per year and nearly 100 million square meters of existing building energy-saving renovation by the ministry of construction every year.To resolve the problems of how to make the construction of new buildings and renovation of existing buildings more energy-efficient and especially how to make full use of favorable weather conditions in the heating of the air conditioning system to avoid energy waste and improve the environment comfort of building,,it is very important to accurately grasp the characteristics of climatic change in different architectural climate zones,giving full consideration of climate change to carry out the building energy efficiency,in order to provide the basis for government decision-making and architectural design department energy-saving design.In this paper,we selected five major building climate zones(Severe cold region,cold region,hot summer and cold winter region,temperate region,hot summer and warm winter area)of the typical city(Harbin,Tianjin,Shanghai,Kunming and Guangzhou)office building as the chief research object.According to national meteorological information center in 1961-2010,8760(365 d x 24 h/d)meteorological elements(dry bulb temperature,relative humidity,solar radiation,wind speed,wind direction)of the data by hours and the construction parameters related to energy consumption(including the heat transfer coefficient of enclosure structure,the structure of the indoor design temperature,humidity and air exchange rate,the strength of indoor load,window wall ratio,etc.)these two kinds of initial data,using TRNSYS(Transient System Simulation Program)software to complete the energy consumption simulation.Using monthly output result MIROC5 mode(factors including temperature,relative humidity and radiation,get wet bulb temperature through the calculation of temperature and relative humidity)get in the future(2011-2050)and(2011-2100)weather forecast data,combined with statistical methods,principal component analysis month by month will affect the energy consumption of dry bulb temperature,wet bulb temperature,and integrate the solar total radiation.This article studies the impact of climate change on building heating and refrigeration energy consumption,effect of outdoor meteorological parameters to forecast the consumption of the architecture heating and cooling in the future climate.The major results of this paper are as follows:(1)Severe cold area,cold region,hot summer and cold winter regions from architecture's heating load of each city are mainly affected by the dry bulb temperature.Under the background of climate warming,the building heating load in the different climate zones are significantly declining;And each climate zone building cooling load on the climate/climate change response model is dramatic different.From the north severe cold area to the south of the hot summer and warm winter area,main factors of cooling load influence from dry bulb temperature to wet bulb temperature.Under the background of climate warming,affected by the dry bulb temperature showed annual cooling load a trend of increase in Harbin.Tianjin and Shanghai impacted by the wet bulb temperature,the annual cooling load presented no obvious changes.Guangzhou,which is influenced by the wet bulb temperature,the annual cooling load expressed as week significant decline.(2)Under the influence of climate warming,building energy efficiency design of meteorological parameters has had obvious change,and there was significant difference between the different building climate zones.The influence of winter is significantly greater than that in summer.By calculating the design load,we found that if we only consider the impact of climate warming,the energy consumption in winter was higher than summer energy consumption,which is favorable for building energy efficiency.The summer air-conditioning outdoor calculated temperatures increased not only the energy consumption of air-conditioning,but also the risk of aircondition operation.We should pay more attention to the safety operation of the air-conditioning system in the extreme high temperature weather.(3)The daily mean temperature and hourly outdoor temperature during the summer air conditioning period showed rising trends in recent 20 years in different cities,but daily difference in the maximum period of Harbin and Tianjin was significantly different.The maximum value appears in the morning,and the temperature rising has light impact on the maximum load in.For Guangzhou and Shanghai,the maximum value appears in the afternoon.The temperature increased,The air-conditioning load is the maximum period with the temperature increase because it is,maximum temperature period in a day,therefore,the temperature change will have a significant impact on the maximum load of the air-conditioning load,which makes the theoretical value is less than the actual value,affecting both the afternoon air conditioning operation effect,and the safe operation of air conditioning.(4)The calculation of temperature obviously increases in each city in winter to favorably reduce outdoor ventilation and ventilation load.Calculation of temperature of outdoor summer ventilation rises and it will increase ventilation load.But overall,winter heating rate is greater than the summer.Annual ventilation is beneficial to reduce the load,ventilation and energy saving.(5)Using the principal component analysis method,and combined with the TRNSYS simulation results of the past 50 years(1961-2010 years),the next 90 years(2011-2100 years),and a total of 140 years from the dry bulb temperature,wet bulb temperature and solar radiation data,we calculated the typical city office building in different climate zones cooling and heating energy consumption in the future.Affected by future climate change,heat load showed declining trends,in those typical cities in the different climate zones,while the cooling load is upward trend.However,different climate zones are significantly different,it should be fully considering the characteristics of energy consumption in the new building energy conservation design and existing building energy saving transformation in future climate scenarios,to do a good job in response to climate change and adaptation.(6)Under the background of climate warming,Compared with 1961-2010 and 2011-2050,in the low emissions scenario and secondary emissions scenario,the change of the average total energy consumption in Harbin by 1.93% and 1.85%,respectively;in 2011-2100 average total energy consumption by 2.16% and 2.72%,respectively.And total energy consumption increase in Tianjin and Shanghai,Tianjin,2011-2050 average total energy consumption compared to two emissions scenario in 1961-2010 growth of 1.32% and 2.07% respectively,compared to the average total energy consumption from 2011 to 2100 in 1961-2010 growth under two kinds of emission scenarios were 2.78% and 2.56% respectively;Shanghai 2011-2011 average total energy consumption increased 1.76% and 0.91%,respectively,in 2011-2100 average total energy consumption growth rate of 4.30% and 4.24% respectively.Guangzhou total energy consumption is the summer cooling energy consumption,so the average total energy consumption from 2011 to 2050 increased 4.31% and 1.97%,respectively,in 2011-2100 average total energy consumption by 8.76% and 6.90%,respectively. |
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