Research On The Impact Of Climate Change On Energy Consumption In Large Cities

The process of economic development generates a large amount of energy consumption, along with a lot of carbon dioxide emission, causing global climate change. In this way the economic development causes external economic impact on climate. With the continuous development of the world economy, world energy consumption is increasing and global climate is gradually warming. Economic activity in metropolitan areas is more intense compared with other areas, forming a unique urban Heat Island Effect (HIE). The HIE along with global climate warming result that the trend of global warming in large urban areas is more apparent compared with other regions. Population concentrate in large urban areas and the standard of living is relatively higher there, resulting relatively higher temperature suitability requirements, thereby increasing the additional energy consumption of temperature control in the metropolitan area, increasing energy scarcity, increasing the economic loss of socio-economic development process, thus affecting the sustainable economic development.Thus, the vicious circle between the two systems of "social economy climate environment" in metropolitan areas comes into being.In recent years, the basic fact of global warming has been recognized by most experts at home and abroad, the urban heat island effect obviously exists within the world, the two factors of global warming and urban heat island effect cause the urban climate keeping warming, the growing frequent of hot weather in the city causes great pressure on the energy supply system, resulting in a number of big cities sounding the alarm of urban energy supply system. Based on the above theoretical and practical background, this paper aims to examine the characteristics and causes of climate change, assess its impact and economic loss on sensitive areas of energy consumption, and on this basis propose the measures to reduce such loss, from the quantitative and qualitative point of view, taking Shanghai as an example.Around this theme, the paper firstly makes the related research literature review; then, reviews the relevant economic theory, such as the negative externality theory, the energy crisis theory, social welfare theory, theory of public goods, sustainable development theory, and introduces the interaction mechanism of "social economic-climate environment" system; Third, analyzes the characteristic of time change and spatial distribution and its causes of climate change in big cities, taking Shanghai as an example; Fourth, because the energy consumption of living is more sensitive to climate change than energy consumption of production and power consumption is more sensitive to climate change than coal, oil, natural gas and other forms of energy, taking Shanghai as an example, the paper respectively analyses the impact on the living energy consumption and power consumption by climate change; Fifth, based on the above analysis, the paper puts out some measures to face the urban climate change and reduce the energy consumption response to climate, taking Shanghai as an example.From the perspective of practical issue, the research about the impact on energy consumption in Shanghai by climate change is limited at present, and the current research is focused on the basic characteristics and causes of temperature change and urban heat island effect in Shanghai. The research about the impact on energy consumption in Shanghai by climate change is lack of completed and convincing models, without good answer to the exact size and its change of energy consumption and economy losses in Shanghai resulted by climate change. Therefore, the quantitative estimate on the impact on energy consumption in key areas in Shanghai by climate change is the core content of this article, and also the main contribution of this paper. From the perspective of research methods, the current research provides several statistical analysis methods reference for the research about the impact on energy consumption in key areas in Shanghai by climate change, such as the random item decomposition method, multiple linear regression model and the daily power consumption influencing model, etc. But there are some unreasonable points about random item decomposition method, so this paper plans to improve this method.This paper mainly uses five kinds of research methods, such as literature study, theoretical research, comparative research, spatial analysis, model analysis, etc. In the part of model analysis, the paper mainly uses the following statistical methods:(1) Using the methods of single index and integrated index, through the statistical methods of correlation analysis, scatter plots and regression analysis, the paper makes a comparative analysis on the relationship between urban development and its heat island effect. (2) Using the stochastic decomposition method to make the qualitative analysis, using the multiple linear regression analysis to make a quantitative measure, the paper establishes the relational model of the impact on living energy consumption by urban temperature change. (3) Considerating the factors such as social economic development, demand for heating, demand for cooling and holidays, using multiple linear regression analysis, the paper separately sets up 13 daily electricity consumption models in 13 years, and calculates the cooling and heating power demand in the 13 years using the gradual aggregation method. (4) Based on the above 13 daily power consumption influence models, using multiple linear regression analysis, this paper establishes 3 influence models about the temperature adjustment power consumption in the heating and cooling season and also every year.In this paper, there are mainly following 9 conclusions:(1) In recent years, the average temperature in Shanghai urban and suburban areas is keeping a rising trend, while the urban heat island intensity which is the average temperature difference between urban and suburban areas is also growing. (2) At present, the spatial distribution pattern of Shanghai urban heat island effect is broadly consistent with the resident population, which means the heat island effect is relatively higher where the population concentrate. (3) The trend of the average temperature in Shanghai suburbs is relatively more close to global mean temperature than the urban land, because the temperature in the urban land is affected by global climate change and urban heat island effect, while the urban heat island effect is relatively weak in the Shanghai suburbs. (4) Shanghai Urban heat island intensity has relatively close relationship with urban development indicators and integrated indicators, therefore the rapid development of urbanization in Shanghai is an important factor which results in urban heat island effect. (5) The part of living energy consumption affected by temperature change has the roughly synchronized close relationship with temperature in Shanghai. According to the model, if average summer temperature in Shanghai increases by 1?, the annual living energy consumption will increase by about 12 million tons of standard coal. (6) For the absolute amount, the current social and economic power consumption is greater than cooling power consumption in Shanghai, while cooling power is greater than heating power consumption. For the increasing multiples, the current increasing multiple of cooling energy consumption is the biggest, the current increasing multiple of the heating power consumption is the second, and the current increasing multiple of social economic power consumption is relatively small. Therefore, the absolute amount of power consumption for cooling and heating in Shanghai is not very large, but the increasing speed is very fast. According to the extrapolation of this trend, the power for heating and cooling will have a more significant impact on the total energy consumption several years later.(7) In recent years, the proportion of electricity consumption for temperature control in the total electricity consumption is keeping an increasing trend in different years. About 12% of current annual electricity consumption is for cooling in summer and heating in winter, which is a considerable waste of the Shanghai social economic development. Therefore, controlling the fast rising trend of the electricity consumption for temperature control in Shanghai has become relatively urgent. If not, the electricity consumption for temperature control will have more and more serious effect on the socio economic development, resulting in more and more economic loss. (8) For the relative amount, the economic loss for cooling and heating in Shanghai is a relatively small part of the total GDP. In other words, from the perspective of economic development in Shanghai, the economic loss for temperature control is within controllable range. If we take effective measures, urban climate warming will not have very big impact on the urban economic development in Shanghai. (9) The power consumption for temperature control is affected by air-conditioning usage and average summer temperature in Shanghai. Theoretically the temperature change in spring, autumn and winter also have certain impact on annual power consumption for temperature control, but these impacts are smaller than the average summer temperature, therefore the temperature in the other three seasons does not enter the model.The innovation points of this paper are as follows:(1) From the perspectives of global climate change and urbanization, based on the existing literature, using empirical analysis, this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the composite influence on the urban temperature change by global climate change and urban economic development. Compared with the existing research, this paper not only makes a scientific qualitative analysis, but also establishes a relative model which reflects the impact on urban heat island effect by urbanization more precisely. (2) From the perspective of living energy consumption and power consumption, respectively establishing two influence models, this paper makes a comprehensive study on the degree of loss in sensitive areas. Compared with the existing research, this paper makes a quantitative measure on the impact on key sensitive areas of energy consumption by urban climate change, getting relatively more convincing conclusions. (3) In this paper, stochastic decomposition method is improved by the exclusion of the tendency of temperature change in Shanghai. Then this paper establishes the influence model using the variables of the random items of annual temperature and living energy consumption. Compared with the existing research, the premise of the model is more reasonable and its result is relatively better. However, this method is based on the crude theory, so this paper only takes the model as a basis for qualitative analysis. (4) In the annual scale, the impact on the energy consumption by climate factor is relatively smaller than economic development, population growth, higher living standards, industrial restructuring, technological progress and other factors, so the impact by climate change in the inter-annual model is often difficult to clearly reflected. This paper establishes and analyzes 13 daily power consumption models in 13 years respectively, using detailed primary data to make a comprehensive study on the impact on power consumption by temperature change. Compared with the existing research, the model analysis is more detailed, comprehensive and thorough, with its conclusions more persuasive. This thesis is lucky to be supported by the tenth Graduate Innovation Fund in Fudan University.